Plague, smallpox, cholera and HIV/AIDS have killed millions of people over the years. The outbreaks of these diseases crossed international borders to devastating effects. Ebola has killed thousands of people but remained confined to West Africa. Influenza became a pandemic, first in 1918, and kept returning with newer incurable strains. These diseases typically crossover from animals into the human system and attack the respiratory system causing fever, cough, shortness of breath and breathing difficulties. In some unfortunate people, they lead to pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure and even death. 

In the 1970s, based on the crown-like spikes on their surface, the name ‘coronavirus’ was given to a family of RNA viruses. There are several known coronaviruses circulating in animals that have not yet infected humans. Sometimes, coronaviruses that infect animals can evolve and make people sick and become a new human coronavirus. When this happens, how it happens, no one knows. All viruses keep changing their forms, so it is impossible to have vaccines against them. All great scientific advancements appear to be unable to stop this mysterious game of nature. All said and done, it looks more of nature’s way to interfere into human affairs and correct the ways of the world. 

The current crises unfolded with the New Year 2020. China alerted the World Health Organization (WHO) to several cases of unusual pneumonia in Wuhan, a port city of 11 million people in the central Hubei province. It was not the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) virus that originated in China and killed more than 770 people worldwide in 2002-2003. This was something new. The first death occurred on January 9 when a 61-year-old infected person died in the hospital of heart failure. Over the next few days, people arriving to other places from Wuhan started showing signs of infection. By the time January ended, the WHO declared coronavirus a global emergency.

Two countries with close links to China, by way of a large number of Chinese coming there – Italy and Iran – confirmed the spread of the virus out of China. In Italy, the government imposed a strict quarantine in the state of Lombardy and 14 other areas in the north, affecting a total of 16 million people. On March 9, Iran released about 70,000 prisoners because of the coronavirus outbreak in the country. India got into the act by first pulling her citizens out of China. Then, the fear gripped people. Large-scale gatherings began to get cancelled and the Prime Minister announced a nation-wide lockdown of 21 days, starting March 25, 2020. Fortunately, no widespread transmission has been reported beyond those who were infected by the people who returned from abroad. I hope all this will pass off like a bad dream. 

Back from India, President Trump saw a golden opportunity in coronavirus to break the grip of China over the US economy. Over the years, China has seized the American economy through investments and trade. Fighting a full four-year term against it, the Trump administration was far from loosening the Chinese grip over the American financial system. Most other countries abided by the US imposed sanctions, but not China, which continued to trade with Iran. Cutting both ways, Trump first said, “The Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus… this is their new hoax,” and criticized the press as being “in hysteria mode” and then renamed the virus as ‘China virus.’ He used his Twitter to say, “The United States will be powerfully supporting those industries, like Airlines and others that are particularly affected by the Chinese Virus. We will be stronger than ever before!”

There have been other different views expressed and methods followed. Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro called the coronavirus illness ‘a little flu’ and did not take drastic measures like lockdown. The Russians closed themselves from the outside world. China ruthlessly tamed the disease. Iran went into denial and panic. South Korea undertook a massive diagnostic test drive for its people and may emerge as the leader against infectious diseases in the post-coronavirus world. Bangladesh not only followed the India strategy, but even developed a $3 test kit that can detect coronavirus in less than 15 minutes, ahead of the Indians.

Two things are clear. First, the coronavirus is no revenge by nature. At the worst, it can be seen as a speed breaker against going too fast, caution to businesses against being too greedy, converting everything into money. The way stock-markets crashed, the impermanency of wealth came like a rude slap. It definitely brought families closer. During lockdown, individuals were forced to spend time together as families and many children and parents saw each other in new light. 

Second, science matters. The only solution to stop the spread of coronavirus disease is by limiting the interaction of individuals and groups. This fact has brought to light the limitations of modern medical care which is designed around just few diseases. Infectious challenges shine a light on a central concern of public health — without improving the health of populations, no individual is safe. Wealth and status are no shield against mortality. Pictures of heads of states and business tycoons wearing masks and news of royalty in England being affected too, taught us that nature’s grip spares none. 

The heavy losses in the economy can be used for a wise reset, favoring farmers, small industries and businesses around day to day lives of people. The Indian government wisely helped out the poor and the farmers during lockdown. To me, the biggest lesson from this calamity is that a country of more than billion people can’t flourish through continuous agitations and endless imports for basic needs. Let us be a harmonious, productive, cooperative and above all, Indian-first society in all our deeds and discourses. Not only are we all connected, we are also existentially interconnected. 

I have no doubt whatsoever, that India has been spared for good. Great efforts by all have contained the infection to Level 2 that is, isolating imported infection. But good luck is never guaranteed forever. Dr Kalam had quoted American poetess Annie Johnson Flint (1866 – 1932) in Wings of Fire, 

“God had not promised skies always blue, 
Flower-strewn pathways all our lives through; 
God had not promised sun without rain, 
Joy without sorrow, peace without pain.” 

Let this outbreak of a physical malady, a virus, awaken our collective conscience. True security is based on people’s welfare – on a thriving economy, on strong public health and education. Individual health and wealth are as fragile as a house of cards that can collapse every time a breeze enters the room.

For a while, there is disquiet in the air. The passing of the apparently innocuous Citizenship Amendment Bill in both the houses of the Parliament, triggered highly organized protests and propaganda. A number of State Assemblies ruled by opposition parties passed resolutions to oppose the Act, feigning ignorance about the fact that it was neither their right, nor business to do so. The people who breathe by upholding the Constitution and secularism, vehemently fanned confusion and anarchy about a law duly passed by the Parliament and challenged it in the Supreme Court. The organized violence in Delhi, effectively timed with the arrival of the US President in the city, showed the scant regard many people have for their country. Whoever indulged in the violence, shamed not the ruling party, but the entire country! 

Indian per capita GDP was a miserable USD 300 in 1991 and this fact threw up the bitter truth about the inefficiency and incompetence in the way India was being governed. Then, India saw rampant scams in almost everything, making a situation where no purchases could be made for our defence forces. The outrage of national sensibilities in 2014 brought about a much needed change. The new government took some bold steps in the form of demonetization, GST and in their deals with Pakistan-supported terrorism. Some relief came to the poor in the form of cooking gas and direct transfer of subsidies. Though unemployment remained a problem, the government returned to power with a larger majority in 2019. It was time to see India taking off, but the exact opposite of that has happened. The truth of why it has happened is not yet out, but the fact is that it has happened and there are no signs of it receding.

India will be called a prosperous country when its per capita GDP becomes USD 5,000 (in 2020, the per capita GDP of China is USD 9,000 and that of the United States is USD 22,000). There are only two ways for this to happen. First, we must efficiently harness our enormous natural resources, specially petroleum gas and oil, modernize our coal mines and start making the six nuclear reactors pending on paper for so long. As the second step, we must embrace technology in agriculture, create efficient supply chains, percolate modern scientific thought into society and live in social harmony. There is absolutely no public discourse on any of these problems. Watch the Parliament proceedings, news channels or read magazines, there is a cacophony of trivial arguments, banal criticism and the entire purpose of our politics is for the elected leaders to remain in power and the defeated leaders to return to power. All we hear is loan waivers, free rides, and more reservations. No one is talking about how to increase the income of the nation. 

So, what is the truth that we can see from these facts? 

India is a country that has never been able to take its own integrity for granted. There have been traitors and internal saboteurs colluding with the invaders and aggressors, working against their own masters and people. Modern India is no different. It is not only ringed by potential foes, but there are also enemies infested in our society and system. Let any government take any good action and there are protests. Leaders shamelessly chew their own statements and assertions made at earlier instances for the heck of opposition. The four modernizations: modern agriculture, modern industry, modern defence, and modern science and technology, must be decoupled from electoral politics. 

Corruption continues. The non-performing assets of our banks keep staring at the people whose money the banks handle. As though this were not enough, the recent crisis of a well-known private sector bank has brought out the maleficence of the top leadership of the bank. While salaried employees first pay income tax and then GST every day on whatever they buy, privileged people, hardly pay proper tax and it has been accepted as normal. The GST system has holes and businesspeople know well how to use them. Political parties are made of the people. Bereft of the people’s support, the party can do nothing. Corruption hits these very people and if not checked, the party will eventually be voted out without any doubt. The calculus is simple: to save India, you must move against the corrupt, and if you do not move against them today, you might not have the chance to tomorrow.

India was invaded and ruled by a handful of foreigners with the collusion of inside forces, who embraced them out of hatred for their own rulers. This attitude persists. National security is fundamental. India must be capable of fending for itself in the rough and tumble of geopolitics. It must stay close enough to the United States without becoming too close. It must plug the USD 50 billion trade deficit with China without quarrel and in a businesslike manner. Also, it must stand firm against Pakistan without fighting it. Although the tone may differ if there is a change in leadership, the substance should not. 

Finally, India’s demographics is its biggest truth. We cannot even attempt to re-engineer India’s pluralistic democracy. More than half of Indians live like second-rate citizens because they are poor. They belong to every religion. We have a very young population, and our youth needs good jobs. How will jobs be created without investment, business sentiment and harmony?  

Our per capita GDP is at a respectable USD 2,000 level right now. Let us take pride in this and not be cynical. Let all our political parties focus on the creation of wealth, jobs and social harmony. Change is always feared by the masses. The intensity of change can be self-defeating. As our Prime Minister rightly said after the victory in the 2019 election, winning everyone’s trust is important. India has changed for the good. It should never regress into scams and vote-bank politics. But this is a work-in-progress – a little ugly, a little messy, and even chaotic at times. 

India will surely become prosperous by actively working towards the goal of becoming a USD 5-trillion economy by 2024 and by keeping the four modernizations: modern agriculture, modern industry, modern defence, and modern science and technology running smoothly with adequate funding and without interruption. Also, we need to ensure that people pay taxes and economic offenders do not escape the law. Corruption is the biggest bane of our times. Each time ordinary people watch people with ill-gotten wealth living like celebrities, their faith in the system takes a blow, and this is the truth behind all the chaos.

The three hallmarks of the modern world are (1) online connectivity, (2) the consumption-driven pursuit of happiness, and (3) the rise of nationalistic feelings. Those who are not into these three, whether individuals, communities or countries, are considered outside the mainstream and are left out. The new thing about New India is that an increasing number of Indian people are joining the new world and our politicians are forced to adapt their ways and update their ideologies. 

China, as a neighbor, is indeed a tough fate for India. In the last thirty years, and especially after transforming itself as the factory of the world, China amassed immense wealth and with it has come formidable military might, so much so, that even the United States sees it as a rival out to change the American-dominated world order. Indian markets are ruled by Chinese products and we import USD 50 billion worth of goods every year in excess of what we export to China. But this is not considered when China supports anti-Indian endeavors of Pakistan in every possible way. 

In a recent book Fateful Triangle, Tanvi Madan analyzed how India and the United States could never become allies, bringing out the brutal fact that international relations are indeed based on national interests. While China and Pakistan were more than eager to   counterbalance Soviet Russia, India had little to offer to the US in a tangible sense. Further, as neither country posed a threat to the other, Indo-US bilateral relations remained superficially cordial and hollow of substance. 

When the Soviet Union fell in 1991, largely due to implosion and aided and abetted by President Ronald Reagan (1911–2004), Deng’s China was seen as the next goose to be caught for dinner. The American big business community – called Fortune 500 that functioned out of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce – made it clear—first to President Bill Clinton (b. 1946) and then to his successor, George W. Bush (b. 1946)—that trade with China was its highest priority. 

The ideological hangover of the Tiananmen Square, where a pro-democracy demonstration was brutally crushed in 1989 by Deng, was quickly shed away. And by the time the new millennium arrived, China was a PNTR (permanently normalized trade relations) country for the United States of America. With no fear of China’s favorable access to the U.S. market ever being revoked, the Fortune 500 opened their coffers as floodgates of investment, working hand in glove with Beijing to create new, China-centric supply chains. 

In 2012, when Xi Jinping (b. 1953) arrived on the scene, he rolled out the Made in China 2025 plan, without any pretense, to make China dominate key growth industries in the world. The Chinese government under Xi Jinping, unleashed Chinese bureaucracy demanding never-ending regulatory compliances and technology transfers on one hand and conducting blatant violation of intellectual property on the other. With a mix of idealism of President Barack Obama (b. 1961) and the unwillingness of the Fortune 500 in calling a spade by its name, China started considering itself not only as an equal to the U.S., but also an adversary for the top slot in world trade.

Now, for the first time, the U.S. is seeing China as a threat. The role of Pakistan in Afghanistan is almost over. The unplugging of China from the great American economic machine is imminent. Can the corollary of this decoupling be an India-US alliance? With business-friendly President Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the helms, there can hardly be second thoughts on this. In the last few years, a great distance has been covered by both countries towards each other and when President Trump came to India last week and made a historical defence deal with the promise to make a ‘very big trade deal’ soon, it was not a new start but the conclusion of a thought process going on for a while. 

History is a great theater of ‘what ifs’. Nothing in history is predetermined and that extends to national political trajectories too. What if, Prithviraj Chauhan had killed Muhammad Ghori when he attacked the first time and had not allowed him to return? What would have happened if the British had never come to India, or say, by 1810 or so, a loose confederacy of Sikh, Maratha and the Deccan rulers had managed to kick out the British, the French and the Portuguese? What would have happened had Mir Jafar, the commander-in-chief of Siraj-ud-Daulah’s army not betrayed his nawab? Or, had Cyril John Radcliffe applied mind and method and not divided Bengal and Punjab in five weeks? Or, had Prime Minister Nehru accepted President John F Kennedy’s offer of helping India detonate a nuclear device much before China did in 1964?

In 2020, another ‘what if’ is staring at us. The U.S. and China are locked in a tussle for the commercial control of the South China Sea, which serves as a passage for annual trade worth USD 3.5 trillion. Can India partner with Japan and Australia as U.S. allies to keep China at bay? Or, do we bury our head in the sand, and keep debating over citizenship even after seven decades of our nationhood? 

The outbreak of the Coronavirus in China has just highlighted how the best of man’s plans can go astray without any warning. Not only is the biggest factory of the world closed, but China is also on a total war footing. The longer the curbs on work and travel persist, the greater will be the global economic shock. No one country apparently has a solution to this problem and working together is the only way forward. When Prime Minister Modi wrote to President Xi offering assistance to deal with the Coronavirus outbreak, it was seen as “India’s acts of goodwill fully demonstrating its friendship with China.” 

President Donald J. Trump is the seventh United States’ president to visit India. President Dwight D. Eisenhower visited India in 1959, President Richard Nixon (1969), President Jimmy Carter (1978), President Bill Clinton (2000), President George W. Bush (2006), and President Barack Obama (2010 and 2015). In fact, thanks to President Kalam, I met President Bush and also dined with him. Earlier U.S. Presidents used to club India and Pakistan trips together, but not anymore.  

The three powerful leaders of our times indeed have a great opportunity to make Planet Earth a better place to live for humanity. It is important, however, to be clear about the limits of engagement between India and the United States against China, their common adversary, and to remember the admonition of Lord Palmerston (1784–1865), who dominated British foreign policy during the height of its imperial power and who is considered the best Prime Minister under Queen Victoria. He stated that in international relations, there are no permanent friends, or permanent enemies, but only permanent interests!

Indians are innately boisterous. Celebration and gaiety are in our blood. We find occasions to celebrate and make a great show of routine and small matters. From passing an exam, to celebrating birthdays and anniversaries, there is a show on display galore. People even take loans to celebrate occasions. Your clothes may be tattered, but your face must be smiling– that is the spirit.  

Nowhere in the world, does the government budget make for such an event as in India. Earlier, there used to be a separate Railway Budget, but now it has been merged with the Union Budget. The media start hyping the budget right from the beginning of the new year and depending on the ownership of the TV channel or the newspaper, a propaganda is launched about what the budget should contain. A halwa ceremony takes place in the Ministry of Finance at the commencement of the budget writing. 

This year, India faced an economic slowdown along with the rest of the world. It was touted as the coming of an apocalypse and clamour started about the liberalization of control over businesses and unleashing more money into the market by whatever means that could fuel the consumption and increase the GDP. Our political parties have long stopped debating on the basis of reason. They simply follow the trend of ‘opposition must oppose’, regarding whatever the government of the day is doing and forgetting the similar things they did in their own days in power. 

Finally, the budget is presented. The Finance Minister becomes the star of the day. The length of his/her speech matters and even the number of times water is sipped is counted. Then a loud cacophony is created about what was expected and not fulfilled. No one indeed asks for the rationale of expectations expressed in the media and why these expectations must be met. Most of the noise is made by narrow vested interests. The huge government machinery concerned with managing the finances of the country is always in place and operates all 365 days. It is not as if the annual budget is the only occasion where policies are changed. Yet the ritual continues.

The simple fact is that the income of the government has risen from 320 billion USD three years ago to 350 billion last year and 380 billion this year. The expenditure is also rising– from 370 to 430 to 480 in the last three years respectively. The problem that needs to be handled is the shortfall of 100 billion dollars. Taxes can’t be raised, loss-making industries can’t be closed down or sold, and there are limits on borrowing from the RBI; so how the government will manage this is unclear. 

The Finance Minister did not succumb to media pressure about the market looking for stimulus. People were so sure about themselves that they opened the stock market on a Saturday so that moolah could be made, but instead, the Sensex tanked by a thousand points! It, however, recovered all that was lost in the next few days and even exceeded expectations. The prophecy of the Nobel laureate Abhijit Banerjee that the Indian economic recession would be “big and long” is turning out to be untrue. 

Another pitch was about pushing up consumption. I personally disagree with raging consumption habits and follow the old school of saving whatever possible, no matter how little the income and of living a frugal life. I consider consumption-based growth a fallacy and bad for the economy. The doubling of tariff on imported furniture is a good decision. A celebrated European multinational furniture company sells mostly Chinese products in India. It is high time we make Chinese products dearer and promote Indian products, especially consumables.

The real issue India faces is infrastructure deficit and unemployment. With time, government share in both has declined and the private sector has emerged as the provider in both areas. In a good economy, 40 percent of the GDP must be invested back. Actually, China invests back 50 per cent of its GDP, which is four times ours. So, the creation of the Delhi-Mumbai Expressway is good news. The IPO of LIC is overdue. LIC invests more than USD 1 billion in the stock market every year, in a closely guarded manner. The public listing of LIC will lead to more disclosures of investment and transparency. Obviously, the beneficiaries of the status quo will protest.

Finance management of an economy in the current globalized world is an ongoing activity, like flying an airplane. The pilot takes off on a designated route following a strict protocol and then keeps adjusting the aircraft in response to the real-time disturbances in the air. 

India needs to bring down the hoopla and rhetoric in its public life and learn to conduct its business with calm and based on what is good for the poor of this country as well as for the owners of corporations and the lobbies they finance. The parliament proceedings are now telecast live, which are filled with cynicism galore. There is opposition for the sake of opposing. If a step taken by the government is wrong, the critic must also propose an alternative and why it is better. 

A line spoken by the character of actor Ranbir Kapoor in the film ‘Tamasha’ comes to mind – ‘Ek din mujhe pata chala ki Santa Claus nahin hota. Bahut bura laga tha. Par kya karein, hota nahin hai.’ (One day I came to know that there is no Santa Claus. I felt very bad. But what can one do? There is no Santa Claus.). Some words are sweet but unprofitable! True words are bitter but important. Some leaders may win elections by promising freebies but in reality, there are no freebies; you are just shifting money that needs to be invested in creating services and jobs. Also, it is a sad reflection on the quality of people that though 30 million Indians travelled abroad in 2019, only 15 million paid income tax. What kind of budget is this?  If we make a tamasha of our country, it would become so.

Seeing Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro as the Chief Guest on this Republic Day brought back memories of my meeting with Brazilian President Lula da Silva when he had visited India in 2004 as the chief guest on the Republic Day. President Kalam told President da Silva about my work in making medical consumables affordable as technology spinoffs. President da Silva held my hand for a long two minutes with a grip of affection and admiration, not commonly seen in people holding high offices. I could feel the absent little finger on his left hand that he had lost while working in a factory when he was 19 years old. The picture is posted in the Journal on my blog.

President Kalam was a big fan of President Lula. Earlier in 2002, he presented to President Lula, the Jawaharlal Nehru Award and talked about him to me many times. He was particularly impressed with Embraer, a Brazilian company that had developed a passenger aircraft right from the design, development, manufacture, sale and after-sales support for the aircraft. There are over 5000 Embraer aircraft operating in 80 countries including India. We can never make a civilian aircraft, Dr Kalam would lament. 

On the verge of starting his candidacy for the 2018 election, which he was favored to win, Lula da Silva was arrested and sentenced to 12 years in prison, convicted of ‘passive corruption’, something that could never have happened in India. President Jair Bolsonaro defeated Lula’s replacement in the election. A Right-wing politician, Jair Bolsonaro won on the slogan, ‘Brazil above everything, God above everyone’ (Brasil acima de tudo, Deus acima de todos). 

Many comparisons come to mind. Both India and Brazil are large countries. They both have been colonized – India by the British and Brazil by the Portuguese. However, after Brazil became independent, first a monarchy and then the Military ruled over it with democracy stepping in and out for brief periods. Brazil is a stable democracy since 1985. At the economy level, both countries are abundant in natural resources as well as human resources. India and Brazil are part of BRICS, with Russia, China and South Africa as an alternative to the West-dominated world order.  Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Jair Bolsonaro are good friends of President Donald Trump; the BJP does not pretend about its ‘India first and God above everyone’ stance; and both have to strike a fine balance between the United States and China as their two largest trading partners. Interest rates are high in both economies and inflation has been a continuous threat. However, due to less population, in spite of being a smaller economy than India, Brazil enjoys four times the per capita income of India. 

The signs of both India and Brazil leaning towards the United States are apparent. More will depend on the result of the U.S. Presidential elections later in November this year. If President Donald Trump returns, we can see consolidation of the current trend. India, Brazil and the U.S. can be a formidable force in the new economic order to compete with China and thereby contain it, should any imperialistic ambition arise there. 

It is high time India got out of its dependency on Chinese imports. We import 50 billion dollars’ worth of goods from China every year and export hardly 10 billion dollars’ worth of mostly raw material. Our once famous pharmaceutical industry is precariously dependent on Chinese intermediate molecules and bulk drugs. Our solar energy is primarily based on Chinese solar panels. 

China continues to browbeat India. Neither is the resolution of our border dispute anywhere in sight, nor has China shown any slackness in supporting Pakistan by all means. It has not budged even slightly from its anti-India stance. Should India decide to correct its trade deficit with China, which it should in order to become a 5-trillion-dollar economy, China will surely rake up conflicts forever kept alive to be brought up and used at the right time. We therefore need to be strong in military, economy and a harmonious civil society, which we are currently not, and it is time to get serious about these matters. 

There are three goals new India has rightly set out for itself: a house for every family with tapped drinking water; doubling farmers’ incomes; and making the Indian economy a 5-trillion one, in a manner such that it solves the unemployment problem. All political parties should work together for these goals instead of creating confusion and confrontation over imaginary issues. India has seen and suffered due to the hollowness of certain policies and spells of inept governance. Something different is definitely needed now. 

Let all political parties calling hoarse that democracy is unsafe in India, ensure internal party elections. If the purpose of the opposition is to create only noise and confusion about whatever an elected government is doing in its term, then this is a misplaced notion of democracy. It should be clear that Indian citizenship comes with certain responsibility. India has to fight the powerful forces of globalization, a hostile neighborhood, and keep growing its economy, not at around 5%, but at around 10%. This is what Indian people seek from its leaders, and not the rhetoric of saving the poor, the constitution and the country from the so-called threat to democracy. ‘India above everything, God above everyone’ is indeed a wonderful idea.