Every age brings its own flavour. As a university student, I have seen computers arriving and much later, the smartphone revolution. Talk of AI and Robotics marks the present times, but what is most promising and potentially transformative is the access to millions of small islands in the oceans that cover over three-quarters of the earth’s surface…
Feeding 10 billion people by 2050
Feeding 10 billion people by 2050
There is an interesting piece of history, not about kings and empires, but about land and life itself. Much before human life started on planet Earth, all the land on the globe was a single, giant landmass called Pangaea. In the age of dinosaurs, about 180 million years ago, Pangaea cracked up into two parts that drifted away from each other. Gondwana became the Southern and Laurasia, the Northern Hemisphere. Some 40 million years down the line, Gondwana split into Africa-South America and India-Australasia-Antarctica. Breaking further after floating for another 100 million years, India collided with Asia, raising the Himalayan mountains. It is interesting to see the borders of South America, Africa, South Asia, and Australia like matching puzzle pieces.
For me, the transition from 2022 to 2023 has been marked by meeting two scientists from Australia and Africa – Rajeev Varshney, a world-renowned geneticist and John McChlery, an agronomist in South Africa. Prof. Varshney was on a visit to ICRISAT (his previous organization where he worked for 17 years) for signing an MoU, his first after taking over at Murdoch University in Perth, Australia. McChlery, third generation Zimbabwean now working as Regional Manager, Export Trading Group (ETG), a global conglomerate encompassing Agricultural inputs, logistics, merchandising and processing, was visiting to study how sunflower cultivation in Africa can bridge the perennial demand-supply gap of edible oils in India, currently at 14 million tonnes a year, spending ₹1.56 lakh crore, or 20 billion dollars. Dr. M. S. Chauhan, a well-known biotechnologist, and the new Vice Chancellor of G. B. Pant University, met Prof. Varshney on the sidelines of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS) meeting in New Delhi, to start an Indo-Australian University exchange program in seeds.
Food is a fundamental need of life. The countries that ignored this truth suffered immensely. The memories of the horrible 1960s are still alive when I had to stand in queue at a ration shop, foregoing my school to collect wheat donated by the United States – a reddish variety much inferior to the Indian wheat – but there was no other option. The efforts of scientists led by Norman Borlaug (in collaboration with M. S. Swaminathan) in shortening the height of the wheat plant and thereby increasing grain volume, eventually saved the day for India. India is self-sufficient in producing grains and is feeding 1.4 billion people without imports. But the same can’t be said about pulses, where there is a supply deficit of 3–4 million tonnes, and the situation in oilseeds is even worse.
Availability of affordable food in sufficient quantity with all macronutrients is an existential challenge before any government anywhere in the world. They do whatever is great in all other areas but fail here, and they are gone! The population is steadily increasing, and it is imperative to increase productivity under sinking natural resources and declining ecosystems. With rampant urbanization on a roll, there is no scope for more land being available for cultivation. Whatever land is used for farming will only shrink. Climate changes are also having an adverse impact on crop productivity and animal health. No one has a clue why Delhi was cooler than Dharmshala this winter!
The issue of increasing yield involves seed genetics, which has been embraced by China and the United States with open arms to great effect. In India, however, it remains a politically sensitive issue. There are powerful lobbies that oppose the cultivation of genetically modified seeds, pretending to be blind to the fact that 70% of the edible oil imported is already coming from genetically modified seeds. The issue of the fully indigenous mustard hybrid “DMH-11” for seed production was dragged into court for years before, to the great delight of farmers, the Supreme Court ruled in its favour, but the rumblings of discontent have not yet gone away.
Finally, a middle way has been found. In May 2022, the Government of India released guidelines for genome-edited plants and laid down clear regulatory pathways for their cultivation. While the insertion of any gene from another species remains prohibited, scientists can now carry out genome editing, called site-directed nucleases (SDN) in scientific parlance. There are two possibilities – editing is done without using a DNA sequence template or with an externally supplied template sequence of the naturally occurring mutations in the same species. These are called SDN1 and SDN2, respectively. The use of foreign gene(s) in a specific location of the genome, conferring new/ novel trait(s) remains forbidden. It is designated as SDN3.
Things have already started happening. Researchers are deeply engaged in the development of genetically edited seeds for crops, including rice, wheat, and sugarcane to improve their yield and quality. Students in our agricultural universities are acquiring skills, like knocking out a target gene; adding a fluorescent or epitope tag; inserting, deleting, or replacing bases; and carrying out a germline substitution of a single nucleotide at a specific position in the genome, called SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) and pronounced snips. This blessed tribe is increasing every year and the gene editing era has already begun in India with gusto. Like we say BCE/ CE, hereafter, agriculture history would be designated as BGE/ GE.
The good news is that an improved crop variety, which is free from foreign DNA, need not go through a complex regulatory regime, and farmers can use the fruits of the labor of their scientists without the complexities and controversies that have been applied to them, while the produce grown outside, for example, edible oils, is sold in the market, making great profits for traders.
The work of scientists like Prof. Rajeev Varshney in the area of genomics leading to high-yielding legume varieties in India and Africa, and the enthusiasm of university leaders like Dr. M. S. Chauhan, is auspicious and a harbinger of India leading the world in food sufficiency. I see the vibrant ICT sector in India stepping in sooner than later to help predictive design with artificial intelligence (AI) tools and providing blueprints for the new gene-editing tools that can make multiple edits in a single genome. Once gene editing, called CRISPR in scientific parlance, becomes a more favorable regulatory situation and becomes like plant breeding, India, with its vast network of agricultural research will lead the developing world, starting with its “lost in childhood at a fair” Gondwana brother, Africa.
Going beyond higher yield, it is now possible to genetically engineer crops that require less water, fertilizers, pesticides, and land. In the United States, soybean and corn yields have been enhanced by 20% while lowering water usage by 40% and reducing corn’s nitrogen needs by 40%. And the story does not end there. A genetically edited tomato in Japan, called the Sicilian Rouge High GABA, is already in the market as a product of choice to reduce blood pressure. This is a huge benefit and ignoring it would be no different than being an ostrich burying its head in the sand. There will be 10 billion mouths to be fed, and science is the only way to grow enough food with whatever land and water the world would spare.
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The sense of “I” is the greatest deception that mankind is condemned to. Talk to anyone and you hear the story of obsession with money, power, name, fame, attachments, achievements, love, and dependency. We live a life driven by our likes and dislikes. Every moment we are moving “towards what we like and love” and “away from what we dislike and fear.” We put ourselves in the center and look at the world as a great circle, disappearing into the unknown beyond a point. The more we think about it, the scarier it gets. Is the situation so bad, or there is a problem within our own selves?