Will 2025 be ‘Year One’ of the New World?
Certain words and phrases gain prominence at different times, and this is becoming a fashion in the Internet media world. “Deep State” is currently circulating about the mysterious powers that run the world. When Khoa Hoang, my Vietnamese–Australian friend and Chairman of Amphibian Aerospace Industries (AAI), visited me, we naturally discussed the geopolitical dynamics, how swiftly governments in Bangladesh and Syria were changed, and how Asia and Europe will be affected by government change in the United States next month.
Khoa explained that whatever word and term one uses, business interests have always run the world, and nothing will ever change this arrangement. Europe was a miserable place to live until the early second millennium. The Gaul (French), Lombard (Germans), Latins (Italians), Hispania (Spanish), Dutch and Norse (Scandinavian) people fought wars against each other until ships were invented. They tasted wealth by occupying territories of countries where people did not have guns. They initially looted diamonds, gold and ivory and brought in slaves to work for them.
After the Industrial Revolution, raw materials were needed, leading to large-scale colonisation. Using guns, Europeans became masters of the entire planet. They kept sending material back to their factories and later sold the mass-produced items back in the markets, killing indigenous enterprises. This business was hidden behind terms like Imperialism, Commonwealth, etc. After the Second World War ended in a “drawn match,” the world was divided into two blocs. Those who preferred to float independently were called the “third world.”
Then, around 1990, Germany first reunited, and then Soviet Russia collapsed. For a while, it looked as if the United States was the only power on the planet, but soon, its corporations, out of their greed for profits, evolved a new form of imperialism called “globalisation.” Without armies, they entered every country to take their resources—both material and people—and, in the name of intellectual property and tariffs, converted the world into a giant profit machine for the businesspeople.
China gained the maximum out of globalisation. It became the “factory of the world” and amassed enormous wealth by manufacturing “American and European products” for global markets. The Communist Party of China, perhaps the most powerful organisation in the modern world, invested this unprecedented wealth back into the United States. China captured rights over almost the entire African continent for material resources. However, attitudes changed when Americans and Europeans realised their good lives were fading. The economic slowdown since the COVID pandemic and the lockdowns forced a course correction.
To understand the geopolitics of the modern world and how it will unfold in the New Year 2025, a close look at history will give a clearer picture instead of indulging in the fanciful imagination of Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, and Biotechnology. As technology matured, the definition of resources changed. What started with mining diamonds and gold, later oil, iron ore, copper and coal, became electronic materials such as silicon, lithium, tantalum and cobalt. With unique magnetic, optical and catalytic properties, rare earth elements—a group of 17 metals—elevate electronic device performance, functionality, and miniaturisation. China currently controls much of the global critical mineral marketplace. It is also rewriting the rules of the world economy.
Let us take a different look at the development of electric cars. The idea is to break free from European dominance and excellence in making internal combustion engines. So, if you can’t make good automobile engines, why not make a car that does not need an engine but runs on batteries? More significantly, China has already secured dominance over the material that would make the batteries that would run such vehicles. China will undo a century of European dominance over the automobile industry in this process. Even being a second mover has its benefits!
No one must make the mistake of ignoring the rise of China, which is as much a wounded civilisation as India is. Powerful countries like France, Russia, Japan, Britain, and Germany tried to control China by dividing it like the African continent and the infamous term “Cutting of the Chinese Melon” gained popularity. Japan extracted hundreds of millions of dollars in ransom, and European nations grabbed vast Chinese territories. Worse still, China was flooded with opium for profits by the British. The British grabbing of Hong Kong in 1841 was a thuggery of the most blatant type.
So, what next? The answer to this question leads to another question: Where are the resources? Russia holds the world’s largest proven natural gas reserves, accounting for nearly one-fifth of the global total. The European economy can’t survive without the Russian gas supply, and for China, Russia is the next-door energy supplier. At the root of the Ukraine War is its potential as a significant global supplier of critical raw materials vital for high-tech sectors, aerospace, and green energy, competed for by Russia and Western European countries. India—the country with the most significant number of young people and a vibrant economy—will be the pivot on which the 21st–century world hinges. All economies will need the Indian market and Indian people.
Khoa shared an interesting concept that no single power on Earth can control the seven seas—the Arctic, North Atlantic, South Atlantic, North Pacific, South Pacific, Indian, and Southern Oceans. The future of humanity rests on how oceans are harnessed and kept free for the movement of goods. His mission of reviving the Albatross seaplanes is based on this premise. Khoa’s company is the Type Certificate holder for the Albatross family of aircraft and is updating and improving this exceptional platform with modern technology to achieve the lowest per seat per kilometre cost.
Khoa is in India for two reasons—need and ability. He sees India, with a coastline of approximately 27,000 kilometres, spanning nine coastal states and four Union Territories and comprising twelve major ports and two hundred smaller ports, as the ideal economy to benefit from seaplanes. The Indian blue economy, which accounts for around 4 per cent of its GDP, can easily be made 10 per cent with the deployment of seaplanes. The Indian aeronautical industry has the maturity of becoming the global hub for manufacturing Albatross 2.0 seaplanes.
It is a pleasure to meet young visionaries like Khoa, who have staked their lives pursuing their dreams. It is the passion of people like Khoa, which I consider the most potent force on Earth; the rest is an old story that keeps repeating itself, with or without the intervention of people. And why do I say this? Projects like seaplanes can transform India’s blue economy, create jobs, and protect its vast marine ecosystems. More important than what you do is how your work affects the lives of others. When people discuss how AI and robots will lead to the loss of jobs, Khoa talks about how the blue economy can generate millions of jobs, particularly in coastal and rural areas, providing livelihoods in fisheries, tourism, and renewable energy.
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Arun ji, Thank you for sharing. Nice way to start 2025 with great insights.
Dear Sir, Greetings! This article beautifully encapsulates the interplay of history, geopolitics, and the evolving global economy. The insights into China’s strategic dominance over critical resources and the shift in the automobile industry are particularly thought-provoking. Khoa Hoang’s vision of leveraging India’s blue economy through seaplane technology is truly inspiring, as it highlights how innovation can transform livelihoods and boost sustainable growth. The emphasis on using technology to enhance human potential rather than replace it is refreshing. It’s fascinating to see how the lessons of history continue to shape our future paths.
I have read somewhere that Yevgeny Primakov (1929 – 2015), Prime Minister of Russia from 1998 to 1999, proposed a Russia-India-China alliance to balance the world order for the good of Asian people. I am not an expert on geopolitics, but it sounds even more interesting in 2025. Thanks for making us think about such matters.
Changes in the dynamics between the world’s superpowers – the US and Russia – will determine trends in the foreign policy of every country, especially India. A change in US leadership might exacerbate competition with China while severing ties with longtime European allies. India is a global leader in ensuring stability in a volatile world. Everyone is wondering if the Indo-US dynamic will regain the vigour it had during Donald Trump’s first term as they watch New Delhi try to mend its strained relationship with China.
Regardless, the bilateral connection between Russia and India will be the most significant in 2025. Both Moscow and New Delhi care about the quality of their relations. It addresses fundamental shared concerns like energy trade, technical cooperation, and strategic interests. Regarding supplying India with high-tech goods, Russia is still the most accommodating partner. A very thoughtful blog Sir. Thank you for making us think about the bigger picture while we go through our lives watching “sponsored” discourse on TV channels.
Sir, I met Mr Khoa over dinner during his recent India visit. After examining various options, he finds India’s ideal place for his seaplane project. I see him as a very hardworking and friendly man. I wish him all success.
I have never been a political person, but Tauji, how you describe geopolitics makes me feel that anyone can not be oblivious to these fundamental forces that drive our world. Beneath the local politics, are we not enjoying the fruits of Internet and IT services, such as the delivery of provisions, food, and medicines at home, with such ease that even the elderly without formal education can operate and avail themselves of them using their phones? Any global disruption is bound to be locally felt.
If 2024 was the year of elections in India and then in the US, the two countries I am concerned with, 2025 will be the year of questions. The effects of Artificial Intelligence and other advanced technologies on societies and economies have only begun to be understood. I want to know how we can keep innovation and research lean, dispersed, and competitive in our country. How can the Indian system be revamped to protect and finance Indian entrepreneurs?
A creative, committed, abd visionary leadership alone, based on the learnings from the pitfalls and developmental voyages of the past, can drive the growth story of the future and for the future to create a niche ecosystem of growth, prosperity and peace in nations of the world.
Dear Sir, Happy New Year, 2025.
” History is a continuous dialogue between past, present and future – E. H. Carr”
History can often be viewed as a simplified narrative of a complex and multifaceted past. Historians and scholars work to interpret and present events, figures, and cultures through narratives that can make sense of vast amounts of information. This process often involves selecting key events and perspectives while omitting or downplaying others, which can lead to a more streamlined story.
The result is an easier-to-understand narrative that may not fully capture historical events’ nuance or ambiguity. Additionally, historical interpretations can change over time as new evidence emerges and societal values shift, further contributing to the idea of history as a “fuzzy” concept rather than a fixed, clear-cut account.
This perspective encourages critical thinking about sources, biases, and how history is constructed. Engaging with multiple viewpoints and interpretations can provide a deeper and more rounded understanding of the past. You have captured very plausible dynamics about the global pursuit of resources in this blog. Thank you for posting Sir.
Respected Sir, first, I wish you a new year and good health. Reading your thoughtful blog on the world as a giant business, I can see Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam; the world is one family, an idea we never forget to claim as India’s extraordinary vision, a grand illusion. People are after resources and profits. As I see it, India has a unique chance to become an exceptional country by offering new solutions to modern-day problems. The problems of diversity, religious extremism, inequality and authoritarianism are desperately seeking new answers.
I’d like to point out two areas. First, India must show a way forward in dealing with diverse populations. The facade of our ‘unity-in-diversity’ is outworn and needs a redo. Second, India can also find a balance of capitalism and socialism that the world could follow. It can do so by limiting the role of government while maintaining the best practices of a welfare state. The old ways of vote-grabbing populism and crony capitalism are no good. Taxpayers must not feel stupid for their effort and contribution.
Dear Prof Tiwari Ji. This is a fantastic writeup on the shifting global power dynamics, and effectively links historical precedents to contemporary realities. The emphasis on economic factors as the primary drivers of geopolitical events is so true. The rise of China, fueled by its manufacturing prowess and strategic investments, undeniably reshapes the global landscape. The point on India’s potential as a key player in the 21st century is well-placed. India’s democratic values, growing economy, and youthful population present a unique opportunity for the country to emerge as a responsible and influential global actor. It is true that we should acknowledge the potential disruptions caused by AI and automation and I am sure that the benefits of technological progress are shared equitably. It was good to know the views of Khoa and the role of the blue economy, which is so important for India.
ARUN very impressed with your narration of the world history, past, and future THESE ARE THE VERY COUNTRIES WHO EXPLOITED THE COUNTRIES ALL AROUND THE WORLD FOR CENTURIES ARE NOW PREACHING MORALITIES AND HUMAN RIGHTS. HOW FUNNY?
Dear Arunji, A very haopy new year to you!
An insightful piece of blog that highlights the interplay of history, geopolitics, and innovation. The focus on India’s blue economy and the transformative potential of seaplanes is particularly inspiring. A timely reminder that visionary efforts can drive meaningful change for all of us.
But any innovation or change must keep in mind about Sustainability that it should protect our people and planet
Happy New Year Prof Tiwari,
I am in tandem agreement with you on this argument ‘It is the passion of people like Khoa, which I consider the most potent force on Earth; the rest is an old story that keeps repeating itself, with or without the intervention of people. And why do I say this? Projects like seaplanes can transform India’s blue economy, create jobs, and protect its vast marine ecosystems. More important than what you do is how your work affects the lives of others. When people discuss how AI and robots will lead to the loss of jobs, Khoa talks about how the blue economy can generate millions of jobs, particularly in coastal and rural areas, providing livelihoods in fisheries, tourism, and renewable energy’ not just for the Sub-Continent but for Africa and the rest of the world!!
Prof., Happy New Year! May 2025 bring inner joy and peace to you and your loved ones.
As an international relations student, I agree with most scholars that leadership or its failure can make or break nations. By extension, the failure of leadership can break the global order.
I hope 2025 will see an evolving global leadership, not one driven solely by the selfish national interests of the superpowers but by a search for coexistence and shared prosperity. But realism tells me otherwise—the powerful extremist leaders on the global arena are here to stay for some time.
These leaders will dictate the global economy’s direction, including what goes on under the seas…
Interesting to learn about your meeting with Mr. Khoa.
The idea of a “Deep State” can easily explain complex political events or failures by attributing them to an unseen force. However, this can make it harder to understand real issues, such as bureaucratic inefficiencies or power imbalances, in a more grounded and fact-based way.
Nevertheless, reviving the Albatross seaplanes would be an ambitious and fascinating project, especially considering their historical significance and unique capabilities. As of now, most of the Albatross seaplanes that remain are in private hands, museums, or being preserved as vintage aircraft. A few might still be in service with certain specialised organisations or in roles like aerial firefighting or maritime surveillance.
Sir, your thoughts, experiences & writing do emanate something from within ourselves. While reading through the blog, I felt they were my own native thoughts.