Feeding 10 billion people by 2050
There is an interesting piece of history, not about kings and empires, but about land and life itself. Much before human life started on planet Earth, all the land on the globe was a single, giant landmass called Pangaea. In the age of dinosaurs, about 180 million years ago, Pangaea cracked up into two parts that drifted away from each other. Gondwana became the Southern and Laurasia, the Northern Hemisphere. Some 40 million years down the line, Gondwana split into Africa-South America and India-Australasia-Antarctica. Breaking further after floating for another 100 million years, India collided with Asia, raising the Himalayan mountains. It is interesting to see the borders of South America, Africa, South Asia, and Australia like matching puzzle pieces.
For me, the transition from 2022 to 2023 has been marked by meeting two scientists from Australia and Africa – Rajeev Varshney, a world-renowned geneticist and John McChlery, an agronomist in South Africa. Prof. Varshney was on a visit to ICRISAT (his previous organization where he worked for 17 years) for signing an MoU, his first after taking over at Murdoch University in Perth, Australia. McChlery, third generation Zimbabwean now working as Regional Manager, Export Trading Group (ETG), a global conglomerate encompassing Agricultural inputs, logistics, merchandising and processing, was visiting to study how sunflower cultivation in Africa can bridge the perennial demand-supply gap of edible oils in India, currently at 14 million tonnes a year, spending ₹1.56 lakh crore, or 20 billion dollars. Dr. M. S. Chauhan, a well-known biotechnologist, and the new Vice Chancellor of G. B. Pant University, met Prof. Varshney on the sidelines of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS) meeting in New Delhi, to start an Indo-Australian University exchange program in seeds.
Food is a fundamental need of life. The countries that ignored this truth suffered immensely. The memories of the horrible 1960s are still alive when I had to stand in queue at a ration shop, foregoing my school to collect wheat donated by the United States – a reddish variety much inferior to the Indian wheat – but there was no other option. The efforts of scientists led by Norman Borlaug (in collaboration with M. S. Swaminathan) in shortening the height of the wheat plant and thereby increasing grain volume, eventually saved the day for India. India is self-sufficient in producing grains and is feeding 1.4 billion people without imports. But the same can’t be said about pulses, where there is a supply deficit of 3–4 million tonnes, and the situation in oilseeds is even worse.
Availability of affordable food in sufficient quantity with all macronutrients is an existential challenge before any government anywhere in the world. They do whatever is great in all other areas but fail here, and they are gone! The population is steadily increasing, and it is imperative to increase productivity under sinking natural resources and declining ecosystems. With rampant urbanization on a roll, there is no scope for more land being available for cultivation. Whatever land is used for farming will only shrink. Climate changes are also having an adverse impact on crop productivity and animal health. No one has a clue why Delhi was cooler than Dharmshala this winter!
The issue of increasing yield involves seed genetics, which has been embraced by China and the United States with open arms to great effect. In India, however, it remains a politically sensitive issue. There are powerful lobbies that oppose the cultivation of genetically modified seeds, pretending to be blind to the fact that 70% of the edible oil imported is already coming from genetically modified seeds. The issue of the fully indigenous mustard hybrid “DMH-11” for seed production was dragged into court for years before, to the great delight of farmers, the Supreme Court ruled in its favour, but the rumblings of discontent have not yet gone away.
Finally, a middle way has been found. In May 2022, the Government of India released guidelines for genome-edited plants and laid down clear regulatory pathways for their cultivation. While the insertion of any gene from another species remains prohibited, scientists can now carry out genome editing, called site-directed nucleases (SDN) in scientific parlance. There are two possibilities – editing is done without using a DNA sequence template or with an externally supplied template sequence of the naturally occurring mutations in the same species. These are called SDN1 and SDN2, respectively. The use of foreign gene(s) in a specific location of the genome, conferring new/ novel trait(s) remains forbidden. It is designated as SDN3.
Things have already started happening. Researchers are deeply engaged in the development of genetically edited seeds for crops, including rice, wheat, and sugarcane to improve their yield and quality. Students in our agricultural universities are acquiring skills, like knocking out a target gene; adding a fluorescent or epitope tag; inserting, deleting, or replacing bases; and carrying out a germline substitution of a single nucleotide at a specific position in the genome, called SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) and pronounced snips. This blessed tribe is increasing every year and the gene editing era has already begun in India with gusto. Like we say BCE/ CE, hereafter, agriculture history would be designated as BGE/ GE.
The good news is that an improved crop variety, which is free from foreign DNA, need not go through a complex regulatory regime, and farmers can use the fruits of the labor of their scientists without the complexities and controversies that have been applied to them, while the produce grown outside, for example, edible oils, is sold in the market, making great profits for traders.
The work of scientists like Prof. Rajeev Varshney in the area of genomics leading to high-yielding legume varieties in India and Africa, and the enthusiasm of university leaders like Dr. M. S. Chauhan, is auspicious and a harbinger of India leading the world in food sufficiency. I see the vibrant ICT sector in India stepping in sooner than later to help predictive design with artificial intelligence (AI) tools and providing blueprints for the new gene-editing tools that can make multiple edits in a single genome. Once gene editing, called CRISPR in scientific parlance, becomes a more favorable regulatory situation and becomes like plant breeding, India, with its vast network of agricultural research will lead the developing world, starting with its “lost in childhood at a fair” Gondwana brother, Africa.
Going beyond higher yield, it is now possible to genetically engineer crops that require less water, fertilizers, pesticides, and land. In the United States, soybean and corn yields have been enhanced by 20% while lowering water usage by 40% and reducing corn’s nitrogen needs by 40%. And the story does not end there. A genetically edited tomato in Japan, called the Sicilian Rouge High GABA, is already in the market as a product of choice to reduce blood pressure. This is a huge benefit and ignoring it would be no different than being an ostrich burying its head in the sand. There will be 10 billion mouths to be fed, and science is the only way to grow enough food with whatever land and water the world would spare.
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Interesting insight into the plant genomics, Prof Tiwariji !
You emphasis on science go a long way in addressing the food requirement of the world !!
Sir, Thank you for this excellent blog. There is no doubt that biotechnology, as an interrelated set of technologies, is having, and will continue to have, a pervasive effect in agriculture. It is perhaps best to analyse biotechnology as a set of process technologies with application in growing more food for increasing numbers of people. The process technologies include classical methods of selection, recombinant DNA techniques, cell fusion, tissue culture, protein engineering, and bioprocessing. Combinations of these technologies will yield results. There is a need for organizations to work together. AI can play a great role in plant breeding. It is time for biologists and computer scientists to come together as a team.
Sir, I recently visited GB Pant University, Pantnagar, Uttarakhand. The effects of climate change have already started to emerge and will undoubtedly worsen. Crops in lower latitude regions have begun to experience yield declines. Extreme weather events are disrupting and decreasing yields and no wonder that food prices are rising. In dry areas, climate change will reduce agricultural productivity significantly as temperature increases. There must not be any hesitation in lawful gene-editing in creating climate-change-adjusted crops. Nothing is more important than this work.
Dear Sir, Thank you once again an extremely relevant and farsighted blog. The fact remains that the cultivable is either going to reduce or at best it can remain same. With mad urbanization the cultivable land is definitely going to be reduced. One thing that is for sure going to rise is the population. The solution needs to be found within what we have. The only way forward looks to be better yield crops with less land and less water and other natural resources. All out effort has to develop hybrids which can meet these conditions without having adverse effect on the health of the population.
We Indians definitely have a mind set which is difficult to change on any aspect and more so on the agriculture aspects. But it is not impossible, it needs persuasion with demonstrations of the new technology. Indian farmer accepts it once he sees the benefits of new crop with respect to yield leading to better income. Since India has varied climatic conditions through out its length and breadth of the country, the research has to take into considerations the local conditions and have to arrive at better options.
Since food security is a global issue, there should be exchange of views across the countries and the technology has to be shared, not necessarily free. As long it benefits man kind at large, it has to be shared and I am sure most of the developing countries would be ready for a joint research and joint sharing of results and benefits. VASUDAIVA KUTUMBAKAM meaning and practices have to be spread across the world. Even if 20 to 30 0ercent people come forward, that will be great beginning. Thank you sir for very relevant blog!
Enjoyed reading this blog about the application of biotechnology to grow more food. It is interesting how better seed varieties have everything to do with better genes. These genes are the codes of instruction found in every living thing – codes that tell organisms to make substances for growth, survival, and many other functions or traits. Examples of making plants resistant to pests, and more nutritious, are glaring. Thank you for enlightening us.
Such a beautifully written blog. To add to what you wrote, reducing food loss and waste is another way to limit the demand the future has for us. World wide, more than 1/3 of all food is either lost or wasted on the way from the farm to an individual’s s plate. Better management of food across supply chains is a solution towards both ending world hunger and relaxing the resource burden on the global environment.
It is most appropriate that you have published this blog on Makar Sankranti, the festival of harvest across India. I have seen the growth of the entire spectrum of seed technologies in my years at NRDC – seed disinfection, biological film coating, and seed micronutrients. These are all incredible value-added technologies that are helping today’s farmers maximize their seed’s potential. But biotechnology, especially gene editing assisted breeding is indeed revolutionary. I am happy that you are bringing together universities in this futuristic area. Advanced biotechnology is interdisciplinary and skill intensive. Please keep writing your inspiring blogs.
This blog of yours Arun ji, opens yet another window to the green healthy farm land. What better a sight than as-far-as-the-eye-can-see, a vast vista of rich and bountiful grain field – any country’s dream child. Rightly coined – the ways to gain smiles is through ones belly and believe me, if the belly is full, wonders are not away, be it a person or a country.
A visit to this totally new destination of higher yield with genetically engineered crops is a place travelled less, at least for those who are not into agriculture or its produce. I loved the visit – the entire blog with the history of the land, the crop and the ways to enhance the yield is a must read and apt for today’s growing population and shrinking land parcel, not to talk about climate change. Ignoring it would certainly make us an Ostrich burying its head in the sand.
I am basically a farmer and deal with our agriculture research establishment (agricultural universities and ICAR bodies) on regular basis. India’s view of the looming food crisis is that of an ostich. After 1st green revolutiuon (thanks to Nehru and Dr. Borlough) practically no agri research has reached farm level in effective way. We attend Kisan Melas..200 new varieties…but no plant/ seed material available ever. 1st green revolution was successful due to quality seed availability and excellent agri extension. Most research is ‘cut and paste’ and done meet the paper publishing target.
MSP is a four letter word for present policy makers…without understanding ground level problems all efforts are being made to make farming of staple food grains unviable to farmers….and no food grains will be available at any price in the world market…when to go out to import.
Thank you, Prof. Tiwari, for another well-articulated blog describing the food production problem the world faces, accentuated with your personal experience with food rationing in the 1960’s.
Applying AI to biotech will contribute greatly to improving the productivity of producing food for the world’s population. We (RISC AI, Inc.) are quite excited about this opportunity as we employ ALiX to find the “needles in the haystack”. ALiX was able, for example, to identify the 10 most relevant biomarkers (“feature selection” in AI vernacular) for colo-rectal liver cancer in a study done at McGill University. Our AI technology is the only deterministic AI training method which guarantees the optimal solution with explainable output. I’m confident we’ll see significant improvements in the productivity of food production in the coming decades ahead as a result of employing AI to the problems encountered.
Energy is also a key factor for food production. How we solve the challenges of developing sufficient energy resources to meet the future needs will also impact the food production challenge.
Feeding the world’s burgeoning population is a herculean task for any agency working to eliminate hunger and poverty. Identifying gene expression, gene editing, genome sequencing, and adding extra genes to a particular sequence or adding nucleotides to modify genomes, etc., are the frontier technologies in biotechnology nowadays.The tools available to do these jobs are rapidly changing due to the advancements in technology and science. The biosafety of artificial food (from tailored plants) is also a critical concern in the new environment.It is a fact that our natural resources are rapidly shrinking, and the crucial biodiversity that evolved with decades of evolution is under threat because of climate change. In this condition, we must think of new approaches and solutions to tackle the ground realities.The evolution of green algae to the present complex structure of plants happened with time and the turbulent environments of the earth system. This type of incident is rationalised only with inferences based on facts. Accordingly, the stature of the organism was formed to withstand life on earth, which is why we depend on environments for food, cloth, and shelter. Our ability to predict the future is limited by these unending demands.
Dear Sir, Happy Makar Sankranti! There is a need of educating Indian farmers about new genetic seeds and how to grow the crops effectively. Huge farm lands in India is still not being used effectively to grow crops leading less output, still using traditional way of farming which needs to be upgrade now, Warm Regards.
Feeding 10 billion and survival of humanity depends on how we make our Agriculture Diversified, Climate resilient and Nutririch. It not only will depend on Science, but also on Government policies. Till date the mankind has eaten what governments across the globe desired. NEW WAYS AND PATHWAYS FOR NUTRIRICH FOODS NEED TO BE SUPPORTED TO END ZEROHUNGER AND MALNUTRITION.
Beautifully researched and presented.
Yes, I remember as a boy staples like wheat and rice were rationed. They were of a poorer quality. With the population going up and more mouths to feed, the society as a whole should understand the problem. They should rise above petty differences, shun cheap publicity and accept as in other spheres of life – the advances in agriculture and micro biology.
We should also transcend above the international borders and help humanity. Only then the humanity will not suffer and we can prevent a famine.
“Richness is not be measured in material wealth – but in ‘giving’ to the humanity so that they too live a good life “:
On this auspicious occasion, let a new order be set, followed and implemented.
Greetings to all.
Dear Prof, Happy Makar Sankranti!!
Totally in agreement with the submission for using science and the knowledge available to us to solve the issues of the times. At the same time, regulatory framework is required to guide ethical and moral considerations.
I hope to seee conversations around the possibility of sharing food security science and technology like we share internet. Food is a basic human right. Scientific advancements related to food security ought to be freely shared.
Thanks very much, Sir for this nice blog (as usual). I am very excited to be quoted in this article. As you mentioned, that science innovations and policy interventions is the need of the hour to contribute to feed 10 billion people by 2050. I am very optimistic that the world is going to embrace new technologies such as genomics-assisted breeding and gene editing, and emerging synthetic biology. India is at the forefront in this direction as it is reflected by forward looking policies of Government of India- environmental release of transgenic mustard hybrid “DMH-11” and release of gene editing policies.
Looking forward to read many more articles and guidance from you. Thanking you once again, and congratulations for this nice article.