In recent years, Hyderabad, India, has indeed established itself as a burgeoning hub of innovation, particularly in the fields of technology, biotechnology, and entrepreneurship. I have been living here since 1982, when, barring defence laboratories in its southern...
Will 2025 be ‘Year One’ of the New World?
Will 2025 be ‘Year One’ of the New World?
Certain words and phrases gain prominence at different times, and this is becoming a fashion in the Internet media world. “Deep State” is currently circulating about the mysterious powers that run the world. When Khoa Hoang, my Vietnamese–Australian friend and Chairman of Amphibian Aerospace Industries (AAI), visited me, we naturally discussed the geopolitical dynamics, how swiftly governments in Bangladesh and Syria were changed, and how Asia and Europe will be affected by government change in the United States next month.
Khoa explained that whatever word and term one uses, business interests have always run the world, and nothing will ever change this arrangement. Europe was a miserable place to live until the early second millennium. The Gaul (French), Lombard (Germans), Latins (Italians), Hispania (Spanish), Dutch and Norse (Scandinavian) people fought wars against each other until ships were invented. They tasted wealth by occupying territories of countries where people did not have guns. They initially looted diamonds, gold and ivory and brought in slaves to work for them.
After the Industrial Revolution, raw materials were needed, leading to large-scale colonisation. Using guns, Europeans became masters of the entire planet. They kept sending material back to their factories and later sold the mass-produced items back in the markets, killing indigenous enterprises. This business was hidden behind terms like Imperialism, Commonwealth, etc. After the Second World War ended in a “drawn match,” the world was divided into two blocs. Those who preferred to float independently were called the “third world.”
Then, around 1990, Germany first reunited, and then Soviet Russia collapsed. For a while, it looked as if the United States was the only power on the planet, but soon, its corporations, out of their greed for profits, evolved a new form of imperialism called “globalisation.” Without armies, they entered every country to take their resources—both material and people—and, in the name of intellectual property and tariffs, converted the world into a giant profit machine for the businesspeople.
China gained the maximum out of globalisation. It became the “factory of the world” and amassed enormous wealth by manufacturing “American and European products” for global markets. The Communist Party of China, perhaps the most powerful organisation in the modern world, invested this unprecedented wealth back into the United States. China captured rights over almost the entire African continent for material resources. However, attitudes changed when Americans and Europeans realised their good lives were fading. The economic slowdown since the COVID pandemic and the lockdowns forced a course correction.
To understand the geopolitics of the modern world and how it will unfold in the New Year 2025, a close look at history will give a clearer picture instead of indulging in the fanciful imagination of Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, and Biotechnology. As technology matured, the definition of resources changed. What started with mining diamonds and gold, later oil, iron ore, copper and coal, became electronic materials such as silicon, lithium, tantalum and cobalt. With unique magnetic, optical and catalytic properties, rare earth elements—a group of 17 metals—elevate electronic device performance, functionality, and miniaturisation. China currently controls much of the global critical mineral marketplace. It is also rewriting the rules of the world economy.
Let us take a different look at the development of electric cars. The idea is to break free from European dominance and excellence in making internal combustion engines. So, if you can’t make good automobile engines, why not make a car that does not need an engine but runs on batteries? More significantly, China has already secured dominance over the material that would make the batteries that would run such vehicles. China will undo a century of European dominance over the automobile industry in this process. Even being a second mover has its benefits!
No one must make the mistake of ignoring the rise of China, which is as much a wounded civilisation as India is. Powerful countries like France, Russia, Japan, Britain, and Germany tried to control China by dividing it like the African continent and the infamous term “Cutting of the Chinese Melon” gained popularity. Japan extracted hundreds of millions of dollars in ransom, and European nations grabbed vast Chinese territories. Worse still, China was flooded with opium for profits by the British. The British grabbing of Hong Kong in 1841 was a thuggery of the most blatant type.
So, what next? The answer to this question leads to another question: Where are the resources? Russia holds the world’s largest proven natural gas reserves, accounting for nearly one-fifth of the global total. The European economy can’t survive without the Russian gas supply, and for China, Russia is the next-door energy supplier. At the root of the Ukraine War is its potential as a significant global supplier of critical raw materials vital for high-tech sectors, aerospace, and green energy, competed for by Russia and Western European countries. India—the country with the most significant number of young people and a vibrant economy—will be the pivot on which the 21st–century world hinges. All economies will need the Indian market and Indian people.
Khoa shared an interesting concept that no single power on Earth can control the seven seas—the Arctic, North Atlantic, South Atlantic, North Pacific, South Pacific, Indian, and Southern Oceans. The future of humanity rests on how oceans are harnessed and kept free for the movement of goods. His mission of reviving the Albatross seaplanes is based on this premise. Khoa’s company is the Type Certificate holder for the Albatross family of aircraft and is updating and improving this exceptional platform with modern technology to achieve the lowest per seat per kilometre cost.
Khoa is in India for two reasons—need and ability. He sees India, with a coastline of approximately 27,000 kilometres, spanning nine coastal states and four Union Territories and comprising twelve major ports and two hundred smaller ports, as the ideal economy to benefit from seaplanes. The Indian blue economy, which accounts for around 4 per cent of its GDP, can easily be made 10 per cent with the deployment of seaplanes. The Indian aeronautical industry has the maturity of becoming the global hub for manufacturing Albatross 2.0 seaplanes.
It is a pleasure to meet young visionaries like Khoa, who have staked their lives pursuing their dreams. It is the passion of people like Khoa, which I consider the most potent force on Earth; the rest is an old story that keeps repeating itself, with or without the intervention of people. And why do I say this? Projects like seaplanes can transform India’s blue economy, create jobs, and protect its vast marine ecosystems. More important than what you do is how your work affects the lives of others. When people discuss how AI and robots will lead to the loss of jobs, Khoa talks about how the blue economy can generate millions of jobs, particularly in coastal and rural areas, providing livelihoods in fisheries, tourism, and renewable energy.
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