What I have seen and foresee
One thing is clear – the coronavirus pandemic is not going anywhere soon, and worst still, scientific understanding, claims and predictions have all proven hollow, tentative, and even contradictory. How is the changed world going to affect our lives and the lives of those around us? These answers should have come from experts, scholars and leaders, but most of them seem to be imprudent and talking differently about the same thing. In the absence of any rational explanations, it seems best to sit back and take a pragmatic look at what is actually happening and what is going to happen down the road, beyond the next turn, as is proverbially said about gauging unpredictability.
Let me first state what is seen. Three changes are apparent.
First and foremost is the huge loss of jobs for a very large number of young people in sales – pharma, financial services, insurance, property dealers, share markets – the ubiquitous ‘agents’ in business. The second is the ‘new normal’ of ‘work from home’ as it is economical for employers to not maintain expensive offices. This has affected taxi services, eateries and a hundred other small businesses that thrive on people commuting twice every day. And the third is media overkill. During the lockdown, people were forced to watch TV only to realize that most of our politicians have really no idea what they are talking about.
Unfortunately, people in the esteemed scientific professions have turned out to be clueless. Seemingly holy global health institutions are puzzled, and their chiefs have made a mockery of science by speaking too frequently to the media and providing meaningless updates. What good are all the collective scientists if at a time of crisis, they cannot even conclusively confirm the transmission medium of a meagre virus! The rush for the vaccine for a virus not fully understood is another irony of our times. Worse still, it has already become a political tool.
The lesser said about medical industry, the better. Even after ICMR declaring plasma therapy unnecessary, politicians and hospital chains are out to promote it. Millions have been minted on this by the hospitals already, so why to take it out of the menu? The way hospitals feasted on the pandemic ‘opportunity’ has taken the last veneer of trust off the private medical profession. It is basically another business, like all other businesses. I am not undermining the service that public hospitals and select medical professionals have rendered in these troubling times, thus saving their countrymen at great risk to themselves and their loved ones, but milk and water have been so thoroughly mixed that no swan can separate them.
There are three prominent features of a pandemic-affected world.
(1) Automated, corporate funded supply chains connecting producers with consumers with the least number of intermediaries. Even geopolitics will get aligned to where the money is and who controls it. Unfortunately, corporations own more money than governments in the modern world.
(2) New education is making the old obsolete but, in the process, half the population is going to be denied basic education and a huge digital divide is looming on the horizon; and
(3) Politics based on primordial identities and family loyalties will die its own death with the mainstream of aspirational young people seeking and getting a better quality of life from the people they elect and defeat.
Of course, the drama of democracy would continue. TV and social media will also continue, politics and businesses will get adjusted to the new realities. I have seen narratives of high and mighty leaders change so many times. Each leader knows how to do talk in public and they will call whatever happens as their ‘achievement’ and rejoice in their positions. Markets and politics always support each other, whatever be the theme of the day and the slogan of the season. India especially, excels in adapting to change.
The wheel of time is always moving – what goes up, comes down. It really does not matter who opposes and who supports, when the tide of time rises, entities ride or are drowned under it depending upon whether they are on it or beneath it. Therefore, it is time to reflect and see where you, your family, especially children, people around you, connected to you, and dependent upon you are and then align yourself with the tide and not against it.
The beautiful Latin word, ‘Renaissance’, has no exact equivalent in English and even in Indian languages. It originated after the Black Plague devastated Europe, to describe a new cultural rebirth and the rise of the Modern World beginning in the 14th century and concluding in the 17th century. So, in that way, it makes perfect sense to use this word to define the present times – a new viral infection erupts in China, spreads with great speed in the highly connected world, forcing long periods of lockdowns as the only way to survive and in the process killed the globalized world marked by free movement of goods, people, and money across the globe.
It will take years, maybe decades before people are welcome in foreign lands again for work. Extraterritorial investments will now be seen with suspicion and as soft-imperialism. The Cold War world order will return, this time, with China replacing the USSR, opposing the U.S. and its allies. India will find itself once again in a ‘neither here nor there’ predicament. And Self-Reliance as the only way to survive, will be a tough test for a mediocre system built for profit by trade rather than production.
Habitually, brilliant and intelligent Indians seek ‘advisory’ and ‘administrative’ roles rather than ‘doing’ and ‘implementing’ things. This must now change. Going abroad and bureaucratic job will not be an option hereafter. I am writing this because it must be written and read. In the famous story of the ‘writing on the wall,’ a commoner, Daniel, had to read a warning that no one in the court of King Belshazzar was willing to notice.
Life is not about sitting in front of the TV, watching reality shows and playing games like ‘fantasy cricket.’ Real life bites if ignored. Plan for your career, your children’s education, your healthcare needs and start living within the budget, avoiding all credit purchases, no matter how lucrative or irresistible the deal. Know that all deals are eventually designed to take money out of you.
Learn something new, make one dollar on the internet, pursue excellence in your rusty hobby, mend your relationships with friends and family, spend thriftily, supplement your earning, and in your free time, if you still find it, choose your entertainment wisely, by listening to some old songs on a radio, perhaps.
MORE FROM THE BLOG
Will 2025 be ‘Year One’ of the New World?
Certain words and phrases gain prominence at different times, and this is becoming a fashion in the Internet media world. “Deep State is currently circulating about the mysterious powers that run the world…
Knowledge comes from Within
David Deutsch (b. 1953), a British physicist at the University of Oxford, is among the world’s foremost philosopher-scientists alive. He has worked on fundamental issues in physics, particularly quantum computing, quantum information and constructor theory. I learned about him through his books…
Take the Bull by the Horns
I am a mechanical engineer who worked for 15 years at the Defence Research & Development Laboratory (DRDL) in Hyderabad. There, I developed the Trishul and Akash missile airframes and Titanium Airbottles…
Dear Sir, the blog, ” What I have seen and Foresee”. is based on your intuitive power as to what is happening during Covid, what is likely to happen and what will happen. This is for sure that Pandemic is for real and is here for long duration. This has exposed our modern science and research capabilities. Initially what was predicted that it is a short term phenomena, has turned out to be 180 degree opposite. This has therefore confused every one and the situation is totally unpredictable as on date.
You have professed three changes to happen in the society as an outcome of this pandemic :-
1. Loss of jobs is evident every where. The chain reaction started from Lock down on wards. The factories and the markets were shut and with that happened the loss of Jobs in all the sectors except hospitals and Pharmaceuticals and the lively hood of millions of people was lost in this country.
2. New Normal – soon the realization came that Lock Down can not be continued because the whole economy was going for a toss faster than anybody imagined. The idea of working from home emerged and became a New Normal for particularly the IT industry.
3. Media Overkill – It has been basically negative reporting. And during lock down, people had no choice but to watch all the trash whether political or otherwise. The confusion has been prevailing all around. Politicians do not know what they are talking because they do not understand. There is so much hue and cry in media about Vaccine for Covid but the light at the end of tunnel is still not visible. The researchers and Scientists have no clue and have taken many U turns.
It is not to undermine the value and importance of the Medical profession as such but the hospitals and Pharmaceutical companies have been thriving and feasting on the helpless situation as the number of increased cases coming to them. Another example is that even though ICMR did not give clearance to plasma Therapy but the Hospitals and certain Govts have been promoting it thus creating further confusion in the mind of the general public. It is now proved beyond any doubt that the Pvt Hospitals have become commercial hubs.
You have very aptly defined the three very prominent features of the Pandemic affected world :-
1. Automated corporate funded supply chains connecting producers with consumers with the least number of intermediaries. The effort is to become lean and thin but increase the volume of business through Artificial Intelligence and Internet of things enabled $.0 Industries. The volume of business of these corporates is bigger than the government.
2. New Education : The education has taken a big hit. The educational institutes are closed and students are being taught through on line classes. It has thus created a digital divide because the rural Schools and their students do not have the digital facilities.
3. It is becoming quite clear that the politics based on primordial identities and family loyalities will die out as wheel of time is revolving – what goes up will come down.
In these difficult times, your advise is to align with the tide and not against it. Renaissance is the right word to use in the present times where every one has been affected by Covid in some way or the other. In fact it is the rebirth of the whole world. It is going to take lot of time may be decades before people are welcome in foreign lands. In India we are looking forward to become Self Reliant but it is going to be very tough because India is basically a trading country rather than Production. This transformation remains a challenge for the the Government as well as the people.
It has been a trend that the brilliant minds have either been leaving the country for better pastures or they have been joining bureaucracy. For India to become self reliant, this will have to change. In the end you have given some simple but Golden advises by showing the mirror with reality. Real life is different. It bites if not planned properly. One should adapt to live a simple life within one’s budget. Jitani lambi Chadar ho, utna he pair phailana chahiye. The lucrative deals are all fraud and these squeeze your little finances. Therefore, one should plan well and save for the difficult times. You are also very rightly advising people to learn new skills to earn a livelihood in such Pandemic times. JAI HIND.
Few week ago I was listening a podcast by Indian born American Philosopher and Investor, CEO of Angel List Naval Ravikant with Tim Ferris, Where Naval said ” Un-Examined life invites problem ” While reading & rereading this blog my mind recalled above line , to which i enquired why i m recalling, Then again i recalled an article by Zat Rana on Medium app(An Paid app where author gets monetry reward based on efficacy ,likes and comment on their article) where he explained “Its not what you know Its How you think” in which He further said ” There is no concrete theories of how thought emerges” . To my mind what and how we think majorly depends on what & how we consume and react.
This blog of yours gives us “A deep perspective of wide observation of your on world affair on Covid ” which has ability to vaccinate us to able to examine our life to avoid problems and its inferences which “Triggers” us to change our “Habit” from seeking Advisory and Administrator roles to “Doing and Implementing things” hence rewards for post Covid era.
Dear Sir, This Pandemic increased intensity of three venom ie Hate, Greed and Ignorance. Instead of seeking solution many are busy in blaming others for problems. Many big business houses , Pharma company & billionaires are seeing this time as Pandemic Profiting Time, as you rightly said Many hospitals feasted as pandemic opportunity as a result it taken off the last veneer of trust from private medical profession . PARI headed by P Sai Nath tweeted that If Mukesh Ambani pays each of RIL’S 2 LAKH employee 1.47 crore as Deepawali bonus He would still be as wealthy as was at the begining of pandemic Whic further says Top 9 billionaires have as much wealth as 50% of populations. All this tells much about inequality. And Ignorance which shows us the second wave of covid.
Dear Sir , If This pandemic will not go soon (As you are concerning at beginning of blog) The line from fourth last paragraph i.e. “It will take years, maybe decades before people are welcome in foreign lands again for work. ” Will be big danger to globlisation .
The last two para are full of great life long lesson. I will choose my entertainment wisely … Thank you very much Sir.
I agree with your detailed analysis especially on hospital and new education issue. As always, this is another brilliant piece Sir. It is true that the pharmaceutical industry and hospitals feasted during this pandemic. However, the front liners like the nurses continue to suffer with high risk of being infected with the virus and low salary. You have prophesied that the Gandhi family’s heir will never survive politically. I feel, the greatest political impact of COVID-19 pandemic is the lost of migrant workers’ livelihood and result of the recent US election. Donald Trump dismissed off coronavirus as the ‘Chinese virus’ that has an impact across the world since people with oriental features were racially profiled (even in India, North East Indians were discriminated by denying them house rent and food items across metropolitan cities and profiling them as Coronavirus. Similarly, the Indian Diaspora in the US also face racial discrimination where 40,000 of them with H-1 Visa lost their jobs). I really like your last paragraph. David and I are learning to enjoy some old songs during this pandemic!! Jai Hind.
While you are writing your article for tomorrow, I wanted to comment on this blog. As you have rightly point out, we have to become a nation of creators and doers. As much as scientific achievement is instrumental for progress of nations and mankind and lauded by all of us in the country, we as a nation must be open to risk taking and be more accepting of failures to embrace innovation. Commercial successes of products be it is hardware or software is important.
Life is not a race its a journey. COVID19 has automatically put brakes in this race. It would be prudent to reflect and reassess our priorities.
It is Nov 14th today. Seek your blessings on Childrens day.
What was vague and fuzzy has been spelt and defined. Thank you, sir, for consolidating useful insights.
Covid made the wheel of time turn erratically and absurdly fast. The authoritarian trend around the globe did take advantage of uncertainty and confusion now seem to peter out.
Covid 19 leaves a lasting impact; let ‘doing’ and ‘implementing’ things be our new mantra. The last two paras merited to be written and posted on my whiteboard.
Thank you so much Arun sir for sharing you thoughts. Always thought provoking and inspiring.
Yes indeed, this pandemic made us think more of what can be done through intangible rather than tangible. To me, “Make one dollar on the internet” is the key takeaway from your blog and current pandemic. Time for us to re-think and carefully adopt to the major shift that happen to all of us – More than ever use of Technology. It is said that, “There is a light at the end of the tunnel!” let us all hope the best and may this pandemic bring more positive outcome in our lifestyle and that is accommodating with Nature.
Thank you for your insights on the COVID-19 pandemic. It has been devastating on many fronts.
While in Africa the death toll has not been alarming high compared to Europe and the Americas, our economies have « « died » in very high numbers. The economic downturn has been devastating – deaths of lots of SMEs and jobs therefrom.
I am optimistic about the turn of events when we have a viable vaccine. The virus won’t go away; however, it will be neutralized to just « another flue » virus.
The new work place dynamic will remain and bring its cost effectiveness into play. Remote meetings and flex time will continue to be the new norm.
Humanity will take stock of « lessons learnt » and move forward positively. Among the lessons is the strength of science that will be placed at tte centre of public policy decision making. The election win of President-Elect Biden attests to this.
Dear Bhaisab, thanks for writing a wonderful and thoughtfully crafted article on the current pandemic the infamous COVID -19.
You have rightfully said that the pandemic has totally changed the way of daily life. Nobody knows when it is going to be normal again. However the beneficiary of the situation are the Politicians who are roasting their papads at the cost of common man. It is a blame game they play and always first in taking credit for some thing good as their achievement.
The pandemic has brought lot of negativity amongst the humanity. Remaining at home for so many months, lack of supplies and foremost the financial hardship everybody is facing. There is little that we can do except praying and awaiting fir the light at the end of the tunnel.
Thank you once again for writing a thought provoking article.
Dear sir, Thank you very much for coming out with a very well thought out master piece on COVID. Every point well articulated and very convincingly explained.
The world has to accept the new normal and as you rightly brought out we should start living with in our means. Honestly I am most disappointed with the great organization called WHO. The number of times this organization changed its stand is countless during this pandemic. Be it the mode of transmission, line of treatment, Usage of mask, effectiveness of HCQ, mode of transmission, is there a community spread, its origin and usage of different lines of treatment, vaccine and so on. If an apex body like WHO is uncertain who else can speak with confidence. For a layman like me the whole treatment is a shot in the dark and fate is the decider. The number of times WHO flipped its explanation tells the real understanding of the pandemic at that level.
Since it is an emergency situation with no known line of treatment, I felt that an expert committee at the WHO level should have studied the options available and allowed medical fraternity to go ahead. Every time giving a contradicting statement at WHO level has left the poor patients high and dry. Be it Plasma therapy, Usage of Remdesivir, favivirapir or Ivermectin, usage of cortisone or HCQ there was always counter coming from the apex organisation. When there is no treatment, if something is seen to be effective it should be allowed to be used. All these medicines are already cleared for safety with no or minimum side effects. Worst confusion was regarding the availability of ventilators and world over it was seen that less than 0 .5% of the active cases required this. It was also contradicted that ventilator is not required and it should be avoided by treating early.
In all these confusions the poor patient has suffered. For a condition or disease which has no treatment, people are made to pay 10 to 12 lakhs for 9 days treatment. Many of the hospitals have earned so much that they can survive for a decade without any further work. Medical ethics has been a give a go buy. They have generated revenue with Positive, false Positive, False negative cases. There is one Munavvar Rana sher which summarizes the ordeal of going through the corporate hospitals:
ऐसे उडूं कि जाल न आए खुदा करे
रस्ते में अस्पताल न आए खुदा करे।
Of course I have lost respect for this shayar after his recent statements (on the recent killings in France).
Coming to the testing, RTPCR and Rapid antigen tests are the two types of tests are available and each is having a certain percentage of wrong results. RTPCR is the most reliable of the two. I remember BHU or IIT Chennai had announced that they have come out with a test which is saliva based and has an accuracy of more than 90% and you can get the result in less than 30 minutes and I donor know what happened. Now the Feluda test. I only wish that this test will be allowed, which is almost at one third the price and can give result in 30 minutes. The strong lobbies must be working against these cheaper alternatives.
The leaders both technical and political are more interested to get the mileage and credit out of this worst pandemic situation. As you have rightly brought out, we should help our selves, We need to learn to make our living, we need to earn from every possible means and try to be within our means. We donot know how many man made calamities are going to strike us in future.
Coming to the digital divide sir, more than 70 percent of the students in the rural areas cannot afford the VC based classes and they cannot buy the gadgets required for continuing their studies and they will be at highest disadvantage. This disparity is going to create a divided society and repercussions are far reaching.
A situation of this magnitude calls for action and caution from all of us and Government has to do its bit. It has become quite evident that following the three guidelines of Mask, Safe distancing and regular hand washing, people are able to survive and continue their activities. If everybody takes these three steps religiously and seriously we can almost run our lives to a near normal level and continue our progress. I can give example of BEL which has a work force of 10000 employees and is almost running its factory with less than 150 cases in the last 6 months. That should give us a confidence that we can still live with this pandemic and continue our progress.
My Doctor friend has explained the three guidelines as below:
MASK IS YOUR VACCINE
DISTANCING IS YOUR PROPHYLACTIC; AND
HAND WASH IS YOUR MEDICINE
Let us all follow these guidelines and have full faith in the almighty and continue doing our work.
Thank you Arunji for a rather insightful & well rounded piece on the pandemic response, or the lack of it, around the world. It’s a pity to see nations, even hyper nations, being reduced to hiber-Nations!
Let’s hope we are all passing through a renaissance, and will soon wake up to a brave, beautiful and shiny, new world
Respected Sir, I know a Seer whose had told some of His followers more than a decade ago that the year 2020 would be a milestone. And here we are! It has shaken us, our ways of living, working, planning, socialising, entertainment and relating to others. The uncertainty continues, and the climax is perhaps yet to come.
One does get a sense of what you are saying: to mend our lives, remove the useless, live simply, share with others, value and prioritise love and relationships over money, glamour, fame and ego; use time meaningfully. To think! And live in a way that there are no regrets later.
Whichever way the virus – and hence, life – goes, these things will always matter. Thank you for showing us the way.
Thank you Sir for sharing this article. As you correctly mentioned, Covid-19 is not going anywhere anytime soon. There has been a lot of false and misleading information by renowned agencies and top world leaders. Leaders have failed to address the severity of the situation and have blamed the other party for trying to stir fear amongst people.
And that has led to a surge in the number of people getting infected from coronavirus. Every industry is trying to benefit from other’s plight in these trying times. Vaccines will not become available till next year and might even get stretched till 2022 for the general healthy population. This is bound to create further unrest in most of the countries.
Only time will tell how people will heal from the after-effects of this pandemic, mentally, physically, and financially. Till then we can try to polish ourselves, spend more time with our families and do things that matter to us. Having lost my grandmother a few days back to covid has taught me the importance of family and time.
Prof. Tiwari has captured the happenings of the present-day life under Covid 19 pandemic in a very authentic and comprehensive manner and has also projected what is it going to be living in the post-pandemic period. However, the consequential changes and their intensity would vary with place, society and community. Mushrooming of overnight experts in a period of crisis is a peculiar phenomenon in South Asia. It is not that it doesn’t happen elsewhere but the frequency of such events happening is low. All these experts recommend their own solutions to every problem on this earth without any accountability and proper scientific scrutiny. Thanks to the social media, which provides them an open platform with a wide reach. The pandemic has brought out the worst as well as the best of the humanity among the people. However, greed has been an overriding factor in majority of the cases, where the poor and marginalized have been fleeced by those who were least affected by the pandemic.
The present pandemic has impacted heavily on everyday life and a ‘new normal’ is emerging. A new culture and life-style is bound to emerge after this mega-scale global crisis is nearly over. The question is whether the ‘new world’ would be a better place to live in than the present day world undergoing turmoil. All living entities are highly adaptable with human beings being no exception. The DNA is very clever and selfish. It will survive and adapt to new emergent environment. Again, the question is will we be a better person in the post-pandemic life? I am not sure as greed has become all pervasive on the moral compass. If God has created this world and control and guides it, I wish Him a big ‘good luck’.
Dear Arun bhai, You have extremely curious and creative mind. Very few people get the problem identification right and even fewer are able to come up with out of the box solutions for them. You excel in both.
It is true that the pandemic Covid-19 has affected and will affect all of us in one way or other. Post Covid, lot of change will be felt in almost all kind of activities. It has not only affected physical health but mental health also. Keeping in touch with our friends and family may ease the stress. Talking our concerns and feelings may help us find ways of dealing with challenges. Receiving support and care from others can bring a sense of comfort and stability. Assisting other people when they need help can benefit both, the person receiving support as well as the helper.
I fully agree with your view point, particularly which you have mentioned in the last para:
“Learn something new, make one dollar on the internet, pursue excellence in your rusty hobby, mend your relationships with friends and family, spend thriftily, supplement your earning, and in your free time, if you still find it, choose your entertainment wisely, by listening to some old songs on a radio”.
Very much befitting! Let me tell you that I appreciate your disciplined way of writing. You are bringing pertinent issues and suggesting appropriate solutions. You are doing amazing work. Continue it. Wish you all the best!
A very appropriate and timely article Arunji ! Only certainty about life now is its Uncertainty !!
We have all noticed how an organization of repute like WHO has made a fool of themselves by regularly contradicting themselves and issuing inaccurate advisories
The same goes for the side effects of Covid 19 on all aspects of our lives more so on Economic front. A lot of positives too have happened, and people have realized it. Hope the world continues the good practice from the lock down period. However, I am less hopeful as people’s memory is short and will most likely go back to pre- covid ways as soon as the cure is found.
I agree that we have seen two sides of the coin on the Medical front. I love the expression to describe it… “ but milk and water have been so thoroughly mixed that no swan can separate them. We noticed that how Hospitals charged lakhs of rupees to patients in 2-3 weeks for a decease for which there is no cure !!!
There is a such a rush and competition to get there quickly in the search for GOLD errr vaccine.. for a virus not fully understood !! No better words to describe it Arunji
The real effects of Covid 19 in all spheres are still not fully known and will slowly unfold and mankind will have to keep adapting to it as quickly as possible. There will be a lot of job losses but few new opportunities as well and one needs to spot them and align themselves for it.
New World order is evolving and one who can adapt well will be a winner.
Media as usual is a biggest menace and one gets the feeling that let us not even watch any News channels. It is a huge waste of time and it just depress people
We will have to work even harder to survive.
Article of the hour.. COVID 19.
An year ago, I think most of us didn’t know that breathing fresh air without the need of a mask, socializing and spending time with friends, family is a “ luxury”. It was supposed to be a regular normal.
COVID has made us realize that what we thought of as normal are real luxuries and not just the materialistic things that we run after.
As a doctor with more than a decade of experience, I have never seen this much of suffering before. Wearing masks, face shields, PPE’s and treating patients by social distancing! Never thought of that before.
What bothers me a lot is that people are unable to say goodbyes to their loved ones and not perform the last rites. How sad is that? Hope we get over this pandemic soon.
But in the mean while, I think Covid 19 is trying to teach us the basics. Keep fit, exercise, stay positive and enjoy time with family as much as possible.
This write-ups will surely touches the life of everyone on this globe. The Corona pandemic is the one scenario nobody have ever dreamt about. There were sci-fi movies earliers like that, I never thought we will face the same situation. It has really affected our life in all directions but also as you said forced us to think about what is most important.
There are loss of jobs, money , happiness and people lost their life too…. The disease not only affects the physical health but also impaired the mental health and peace. Lesson learnt is the family is very important and comes first, our overall good health and use money wisely.
You have rightly stated that nobody has any clues about the disease till now, all things have become experimental, all scientific theories are proving wrong. Now, the only thing is to learn how to live with COVID and protect us from it. Everyday in the morning, we pray to get over this situation and get back to my previous and a bit carefree life without a mask.
Another intriguing, timely and vastly important topic Prof. Tiwari! The coronavirus indeed has been politicized in the U.S. – and elsewhere – to the extreme exacerbated by the fact we are in an election year with a polarized populace. Tomorrow is the day we vote and we shall see what message the American people send. I see similarities to 2016 – polls indicating Clinton leading, but in the end the energy of the Trump support prevailed.
The contrast between the candidates could not be greater. And Biden has put most of his focus on making the coronavirus the issue to differentiate himself from Trump. But Trump’s first action of banning travel from China was criticized by Biden as being racist. This single event may have saved tens if not hundreds of thousands of lives in the U.S.
Biden predicts a “dark winter” for America and, in my opinion, unjustly blames Trump for the many COVID-related deaths in the U.S. Yes, Trump has made some misstatements on the virus that has politically hurt him. But given the speed of providing ventilators, therapeutics, PPE and vaccine development, I give him an A.
America and the world will emerge from this pandemic with much learned and new opportunities. It could in fact be the catalyst that brings the US and India closer together for pharmaceutical development, military cooperation and more.
A future Cold War for sure will be upon us and the extent of it will depend in part on the result of tomorrow’s election. China and the WHO has a lot yet to answer for. Regardless of the outcome, God has a plan and we will see what He has in mind!
Dear Sir, One thing I forgot to mention in my last comment, that the role of world’s leaders have not been satisfactory in communicating the right information from authentic sources. For example, I noticed that US president Mr.Trump has misguided the fellow nations by commenting on the Covid crisis as a bio-wepon from China, also highlighted the use of chloroquine drug as cure for Corona without any scientific evidence. It has resulted into ineffective treatment and loss of more human lives. And still it is not under control and spreading widely, a second wave is knocking. However, people with healthy lifestyles and good cleaning habits are doing good and proving themselves as fittest to survive this Covid-19 crisis.
On the other hand world is facing a bigger challenge than Covid-19 is Terrorism, it seems world is going to divide into two soon. Also, France is moving towards the path of becoming another Israel. The situation is really not good for the whole world. Let’s pray for a better future of humanity.
The predicament of these times is very lucidly explained. Being modern yet simple seems the way forward.
Arunji, very well written. The confusion created was enormous. Some people made good business out of this confusion. As you rightly said at the end – I read more, gave more speeches, started my u tube channel posting weekly 3 minute videos on various topics and improved my relationships at home and outside. Improved health substantially with disciplined Yoga and walking.
Sir, you have portrayed a true picture of the present time. And your caution is very well received. “Life is not about sitting in front of the TV, watching reality shows and playing games like ‘fantasy cricket.’ Real life bites if ignored. Plan for your career, your children’s education, your healthcare needs and start living within the budget, avoiding all credit purchases, no matter how lucrative or irresistible the deal. Know that all deals are eventually designed to take money out of you.”
I recall a poem of Lao Tzu you shared in one of your lectures, it was on the Law of Success ‘Habit of Saving’ I guess.
Manifest plainness,
Embrace simplicity,
Reduce selfishness,
Have few desires.
Even my child liked the simple picture in the blog. It is so simple and the view of the Sun rising from a dark room holds great promise.
Thank you, Sir, for expressing what we all are seeing in silent disbelief. I felt while I read as my own expression. In just a few months the world has so thoroughly changed. Your caution against denial is most timely. We must not spend any money this festival season, especially on gadgets and replacement of the old. The future is unpredictable and whatever savings one has must be held in a truly tight fist.
Sir, I have seen you over decades and sincerely admire your simple ways. Whenever I shared with you my disappointments you offered hope and confidence. You always said that the basis of all progress is the clarity of thought and the efficiency of labour and the only sure road to prosperity is through the thrift. I especially like the picture with this article. We are in a dark room and watching outside to a rising Sun. At list amongst all uncertainties, however frightful they may be, this hope of a new dawn is so reassuring.
Sir the picture is just perfect. As it is often said that a picture is worth a thousand words, your blog with a picture captures and convey complex and multiple ideas. The essence of coronavirus pandemic is so effectively brought out. It is indeed surprising how different people are talking different things about the situation. Yesterday the exodus of people from Paris was worst then what we have ever seen, even in Surat during plague days in 1994. All claims by scientists, political leaders, and economists are indeed proving wrong. And I wonder if the present race for a vaccine is really worth it and the vaccine will eventually work.
Sir, I am in HR profession. My take of your blog is these lines, “Learn something new, make one dollar on the internet, pursue excellence in your rusty hobby, mend your relationships with friends and family, spend thriftily, supplement your earning, and in your free time, if you still find it, choose your entertainment wisely, by listening to some old songs on a radio, perhaps.” There is so much fear, anxiety among people. It has to be managed and mere denial and repression will not work. Each one of us to find our own way ahead. And your advice of holding on to savings and not buy on credit is the best thing each one of us can do to ourself this festival season.
COVID misinformation became an ‘infodemic’ posing a serious concern in fighting the pandemic. People were misled by unscientific and unsubstantiated claims about the disease, they may be less likely to observe official guidance and thus risk spreading the disease.
I found these lines inspiring and motivational –
“Life is not about sitting in front of the TV, watching reality shows and playing games like ‘fantasy cricket.’”
“Learn something new, make one dollar on the internet, pursue excellence in your rusty hobby”.
As you have mentioned in your article, the Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted the economic, social, cultural, and political scenarios everywhere in the world. In India, people who were struggling to escape the vicious cycle of poverty and deprivation have been pushed back by the economic downturn.
A large number of families have lost their livelihood support. There are apprehensions that cases of hunger and mental illnesses will increase significantly. As educated citizens, we must do our bit to help improve the situation, while taking mandatory precautions against the Covid. We must learn to balance our optimism with realism.
Another area of consideration is the growing role of digital technologies in all spheres of human life in a situation where the ‘digital divide’ is vast. Bridging the digital divide should be taken as a Challenge of the current era, Thanks and regards.
Prof Tiwari, Thank you once again for provoking our thoughts with this very appropriate and timely article which you chose to title ‘what I have seen and foresee’ how I wish the world famed media houses had seen it and sought recourse to interview your own person as a way of getting the savvy behind the words with room for a greater elaboration for truths hidden between lines for our greater good.
SARS CoV-2 aka COVID-19 truly has been a disease that has caught the human race with pants down, the options at our disposal being so limited that every Tom, Dick and Harry out there has had their field day on their proclamation of what works and what doesn’t it, in the process it’s what you do at a personal level that keeps you from the fear of the unknown on what is effective and what is not, vigilance leading the way every day. I am glad none is immune to learning on something new or the other, this is what is happening at the moment.
A close companion developed the symptoms, got tested the result were positive for the infection, Azithromycin, steam inhalation and enhanced use of lemon, ginger, onion, garlic and sea salt provided almost an immediate relief that even two of her close companions in a similar situation used and are on their way to full recovery, is it a secret that certain countries in the African continent live as though there is no virus?
In a previous comment to your article I quoted the Bible from the book of Ecclesiastes chapter 3, where King Solomon has written on the theme of Time, there is truly a time for every season and happening in life, our time calls for adapting to the realities dictated by the infection looming around us, we have garnered many lessons:
1. Meetings can be attended virtually from the comfort of our sitting rooms
2. Classes can be taken at home, our children staying in the house listening to lectures doing assignments and homework’s virtually
3. Work can be done virtually, in a timely manner without any breaths on employee’s necks for missed deadlines
4. Hygiene is a lifestyle that all must live to remain safe
5. Face masks and protection shields can be worn at all times we transact business in public
6. Places of worship such as Churches and the like are just a convenient place to bringing people to worship, the actual worship experience is individual that needs not a crowd to be realized, the list will go on
While prayers continue to the Almighty God for a sustainable solution to be realized, laid down procedures on developing new drugs and vaccines must be adhered to if harm is to be averted, this is true irrespective of the severity and impact of the illness. Recent drug therapies/ vaccine tests withdrawals prove this to be a fact. We patiently wait for what will eventually prove to be effective.
That life is not about sitting in front of the TV, watching reality shows and playing games like ‘fantasy cricket.’ Is a fact only fools will ignore and suffer the consequences, of a truth we need to act in planning our careers, children’s education, healthcare needs and start or continue living within the budget limits, indeed all deals are eventually designed to take the hard earned money out of us.
Learn something new, it is not too late to enroll in some training for a skill you never had, only dead people are excluded from this, mend your relationships with friends and family, spend thriftily, supplement your earning, and in your free time, if you still find it, choose your entertainment wisely, by listening to some old songs on a radio, the best options, not only now but for all time.
Hi Arun, You have described the sadness of the day in three simple sentences. — “What good are all the collective scientists if at a time of crisis, they cannot even conclusively confirm the transmission medium of a meagre virus! The rush for the vaccine for a virus not fully understood is another irony of our times. Worse still, it has already become a political tool.” Brilliant.
Dear Arun, you have so well summarised the impact viz . Huge Unemployment, Work from Home and Media Overkill. Nature is resetting new world order and unless Humankind readjust the way of life, it will face unmanageable calamity much though it touts of overwhelming technology evolution. You have truly captured the vicious nexus of profiteering by various stakeholders of Society from the gullible population. History will never forget and forgive such rogues in the future when New Normal is redefined! God Bless !
The COVID-19 challenge will call for unprecedented cooperation between the United States and India in the area of health security. Assuming the polls to be accurate, Vice President Biden will become President Biden on November 3. The Trump presidency will be cast into the dustbin of history. The Biden Administration will need to work with India to develop solutions, vaccines, and treatments for the COVID-19 pandemic.
One major lesson that needs to be learned is that the United States and India need to reduce their dependence on medical supplies from China. As noted by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts), who will perhaps be Secretary of the Treasury in the Biden Administration, “The coronavirus pandemic has made clear what we’ve known for years: that our dependence on drugs and drug components imported from China and other countries is a threat to our national security and our public health.”
India has strong pharmaceutical companies that can assist the U.S. pharma companies. There are seven very well-equipped, organized and staffed National Institutes of Pharmaceutical Education and Research (NIPER) in India. These NIPER organizations can work with U.S. pharma companies and U.S. government institutions to develop drugs faster and more efficiently than their counterparts anywhere in the world. Let us turn the coronavirus pandemic into an opportunity for cooperation between the largest democracy in the world and the oldest.
The confusion in scientific parlance on COVID-19 is indeed baffling. I am aghast at the way WHO handled the whole situation. They kept on changing their position as if some novices are sitting there and not the best of the brains picked from across the world to take care of the health of humanity.
My second horror came from the U.S. I saw it as a land of science and great institutions and always considered the years I spent there as my golden period. But the way its people and institutions handled the pandemic brought out the hollowness of the Great American system and society. The tragedy is further confounded with the bitterly fought Presidential Election. Whoever wins, democracy has already lost.
The situation in the rest of the scientifically advanced countries is no different. I will cite France and the UK here. Both are going for a second round of lockdown as the first round had failed. And no one really knows what made the first one fail and how the second one will be different. When I am writing this people in Paris are fleeing for the countryside and jamming the roads ahead of France’s lockdown to slow the spread of resurgent coronavirus infections.
Thanks so much Shri Arunji for sharing your thoughts on this topic.. “Self-Reliance as the only way to survive, will be a tough test for a mediocre system built for profit by trade rather than production.” Just wondering, how do we make things happen here.. Government systems are highly mediocre, lacking motivations, hardwork, commitment etc.. Large private institutions have personal interests which take priority over larger good.. The life and incentives of local and family initiatives are getting tougher every passing day.. All that remains of democracy is appeasement, kickbacks and calculated throwaways to seek votes..
“Habitually, brilliant and intelligent Indians seek ‘advisory’ and ‘administrative’ roles rather than ‘doing’ and ‘implementing’ things. This must now change. Going abroad and bureaucratic job will not be an option hereafter.” Here again, how do we change the system that someone wishing to do and implement things in the best interests of the society still get enough support and remunerations. For most professionals it is way easy to get job in one of the large corporates and make handsome money. Same professionals may be willing to work much harder for initiatives that may contribute to our national interests, economy etc.. However, as I see and hear, the risks are many folds, the returns take long time to come, bureaucracy/cumbersome processes entangle focus out of core and to sustain on happy/non-corrupt path likely impossible..
Another example is from Sports.. International Sports in India seems less of sporting and most of politics. Leaving couple of exceptions around, most sports are utter failure in spite of population and talent in the country.. Looking forward to your perspectives on this. Also hope some day our PM Modiji is able to bring a change such that large majority of Indians never experience utter inefficiencies and corruption..
Vah ! Professor Arun Tiwari jee, you have touched everything in this blog. I salute yours commendable thoughts and the vision. The CoVID-19 pandemic is certainly going to change the world orders and lifestyle we have been used to live with. But it is sure that humanity and human race will emerge with a new beautiful new and long lasting order.
In the laboratory of nature such experiments have been usual. Let us just imagine in past what would’ve been the situation when mankind first encountered with the common cold and flu virus ! I think the same would have been the situation we are facing and struggling with this new Corona virus today.
Those who adapted, survived and those who could not, suffered and left the world. We must keep in mind that we’re just an entity in the laboratory of nature’s. It she who shapes the world. In the course of evolution, best is picked up to carry forward and rest are treated as……..
Let’s always keep in mind we aren’t governor of the world order but governed by the mother nature on this earth. If we don’t, we loose.
Dear Sir, Another Thought provoking article from your pen. I would like to add my view here. In my view, again Darwin’s theory of evolution, “Survival of the fittest ” is going to be in action. Humans across the world are going to win this fight against virus, there is no doubt.
Intelligent minds are adopting quickly do do their businesses in a digital way. The world is now Digital Global not only Global. The whole game is moved to the next level. Thanks to the new information technologies which has given an another important tool to play the game confidently.
In next 10 years of time the Humans of today’s will be more intelligent and more perfect in communicating with each other due to maximum interactions via online activities like on-line business meetings , online purchasing, online teaching, online treatments of patients, etc. Let’s hope for a better future, it’s all decided by God and necessary for nature’s healing.
The topic of the day, the year and possibly the century…..Corona Pandemic has rightly been addressed by you Arun ji.
Won’t be out of place to say Corona struck like a lightning. No matter how strong or proper ‘earthing’ was there, it could not be grounded. It broke all barriers and gave the shock…shock of a life time. Caught unawares and with no clue, like an earthquake on Richter scale above 8, it shook the sleeping world and buried one and all under the debris of no return. Only difference being it took 14 to 21 days for one to perish rather than immediate under the pile of dust and rubble. But in the process it spread its tentacles, added more and more humans whoever came in contact. Ten months since in India, still the invisible killer roams untamed. The sinusoidal wave of troughs and valleys continues unabated. The only difference is that now the authorities are aware, have made several arrangements and are better prepared but alas the cure is still no-where near.
You have rightly highlighted the changes which have happened right from loss of jobs, financial loss and the change in life and style during the lockdown and after. Many thriving businesses are washed away, some new ones have evolved but in a major shift the losses are uncountable. The suffering is immeasurable and the physical and mental impact is irretrievable. Humans being humans, still look for their individual gains. Medical fraternity on one hand came forward to support and touched our hearts by helping mankind without caring about themselves but on the other the Medical and Pharma business dragons fumed fire. Like a white ant they burrowed in, saw the opportunity to milk the hapless cow and made an individual hollow by minting money. I fully second your statement of ‘the milk and water being so thoroughly mixed no swan can separate’ and is left with no choice but to swim in the mixed medium to stay alive. The politicians would not unite, whether in India, U.S or the world. Corona has become a medium to score on the opponent. Why can’t one stand united for a change and collectively fight against and look for a solution to the problem of mankind irrespective of the country or the political group? Is it ethical to fight elections with Corona as the flash point? Is it moral to gain at the risk and cost of the poor and the meek world over?
Fully agree, when you write about consolidating, looking around for the benefit of one’s family and near and dear ones. Consolidating is the go to word. Cutting the cloth as per requirement is a must in today’s financial scenario. Past we have gone through, present we are aware but what is there in store for tomorrow is unknown. What about HT warning its readers to be prepared for several such viruses and even more draconian than the present Corona likely to attack in near future and worst the frequency would be with lesser intervals. A write up which gives nightmares.
The debate whether the virus was man made in the laboratory at Wuhan or not has not died down. The possibility of future wars between nations could be a chemical war fought through such like viruses. One has not only to pump in bullets to destroy and win over a country, it can also be done to finish and destroy the country economically and financially. The idea is to empower – militarily or chemically. One shudders at the thought.
So for us Indians, as you rightly say habitually administrators, intellectuals, and into research and development need to change a bit. Atmanirbhar, as the slogan given by our worthy Prime Minister is the need of the hour for the younger generation. Self skilled, doing things with own hands, manufacturing, producing…in whatever field it may be would be the key to the success of self and in turn of the country. We have the caliber, the zeal and the untiring ethos of hard work built into us which can move many a mountains, conquer many a peaks and swim across many oceans. So guys get up, shun laziness, gather thoughts, act swiftly and decisively….the world awaits you!
Sir, Any patient would vouch for this, “The way hospitals feasted on the pandemic ‘opportunity’ has taken the last veneer of trust off the private medical profession.” I have personally seen private doctors and their marketing agents trying to say it works and they were making money by bringing people for this expensive therapy. Money was also paid to ‘plasma donors.’
Through TV, a lot of expectations were raised from plasma therapy followed by business efforts in promoting it with hospitals and states. Lot of blood banks overnight turned into plasma banks and even general doctors started vouching for its efficiency prescribing the therapy to patients with mild symptoms.
There was not a significant difference in the proportion of those who did not progress to severe illness over 28 days, nor did the trial save a significant fraction of patients from death in the study across 39 hospitals covering 646 hospitalized patients in April. Even after ICMR declared the therapy ineffective, some ministers keep endorsing it for whatever reason.